Friday, November 18, 2022

Bursa Malaysia (KLSE)

 Malaysia's stock exchange looks cheap based on historical earnings, lets look further.

You can't buy it with Interactive Brokers, I trade KLSE stocks with a Singapore broker.

TLDR: Everything depends on KLSE trading volume, which is unpredictable, I think this stock is too expensive now.

Malaysia is a developing country.  Its a commodity producer, and I expect commodities to do well this decade.  It also exports electronics and mid-tier microchips, so may benefit from manufacturing leaving China.

Business and Revenue Breakdown

Most of their revenue is from trading:

And most of the trading revenue is from Securities trading:

So Securities trading is the only thing we have to think about.  Derivatives trading revenue is constant, and Islamic Trading is small.  This is a company with one single business.


Good financials.  All stock exchanges seem to follow the same pattern.  As of Sep 2022:
  • Large net cash position (plus some Investment Securities), no debt
  • CFO is basically PBT plus small depreciation and small working capital.
  • 40% profit margin (after all expenses, including tax) in 9M 2022.
  • Minimal Capex with high dividends:
  • The dividends are too high:
  • They are paying part of the dividend out of accumulated "cash and investment securities".  As of 3Q22, "cash and investment securities" is worth RM 565m, or roughly 9% of their market cap (@ 6.40 per share).


This stock exchange is a cash generating machine.  The only question is how much you'd pay for it.

Everything depends on whether we think the big jump in Securities Trading revenue in 2020 and 2021 can be maintained.  This company is easy to understand, but hard to value.

If I had to catch a falling knife, I'd probably be willing to pay 12-15X normal earnings.  Based on 2017 to 2019 earnings, the price would need to drop significantly, to around RM 3.70 to 4.00.  Not buying it now.


Emergingman said...

Can you recommend some broker please?

BlackCat said...

Since you're in Europe, can try Saxo to trade KLSE stocks. I haven't tried them.

But I'm a little wary of a brokerage thats part of an investment bank, so I wouldn't put all my money with them.

Emergingman said...

I would have liked some local broker, possibly also active in Thailand and Vietnam

BlackCat said...

Theres a good article here:

I use UOB Kay Hian. I think all 3 SG banks are the same.