Thursday, February 27, 2020

Sold India and HK stocks

Sold these a few days ago, before the market correction started:
India was because Hedgeye confirmed bearish trend.  HK was lucky.

IAG has been badly affected by the crash, down more than 20% (around SGD 8K) in a week.  That was really the worst time to buy it.

My other stocks are not affected yet.

I am now 50% cash/TLT, 9% gold companies, the rest stocks:

What stocks do I lookout to buy in the correction?  I don't think Singapore REITs will drop enough for me to bother.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Bought TLT

Bought TLT (20 year treasuries) in 14th Feb.  310 shares at $144.78.

Mostly as a hedge for my China/India and IAG positions.

SPY is overextended, but still keeps going up.  Gold and long-term bonds are also going up, so they don't believe in the previous sentence.  I wait for SPY to drop, probably taking the rest of my stocks with it, and for the Fed to lower rates by a lot (0.5 or 1%).  Gold and TLT cushion me in this scenario, and give me some money to play with if the market corrects like in 4Q18.

This weekend, the coronavirus has broken out in Italy and South Korea, spectacularly for the latter.  Markets should go down....but with so much stimulus, I don't know if they will.

I am now:
  • 50% invested in stocks.  Slightly more than half of that is long term dividend stocks (mostly Netlink Trust & Manulife US Reit).
  • 35% in cash
  • 15% in Gold Financing Companies and TLT.  Should go up if SPY goes down, thought they are going up now anyway.

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Bought shares in IAG

Based on the report at undervalued shares  (Its $50 per year to join).  Buffet bought into US airlines in 2016; the European airlines are not yet as consolidated at the US airlines were then, but they are expected to consolidate further.

Its trading at 7.5X earnings, a low valuation, with a reasonable leverage (and fleet age), and decent operating margins.

The main risk here is a US recession.  I guess a 50 percent chance of a recession starting in 2020/2021, else we get a slowdown and the recession comes a few years later.  I've bought a 5% position.

This is a long term buy-and-hold stock.  The only one I have found at a reasonable price in the last few years.  If it rises to a reasonable valuation (like 12 to 15 times earnings), I may sell to buy back in the next recession.

Bought 3213 shares at 7.594 Euros on BM last night.  I held off a while, waiting for the coronavirus impact on airline stocks...which dosen't seem to be happening.  Eventually I bit the bullet - at 7 and a half times earnings, just buy.

Thursday, February 6, 2020

Bought some China shares

Bought some HK shares yesterday morning.  China consumer stocks.

Around 5% of my portfolio - this is half my position.  I may be a bit early.  We don't know how bad the virus will get.