Sunday, April 25, 2010

Bought citydev

Bought 2 lots @ 11.06 on Thurs 22nd Apr.

Has retraced slightly on low vol.

Cut-loss at previous low (10.56).

The rally that won't die

  • Market still in uptrend. Despite Greece, Goldman Sachs... etc, it is still going up.
  • IBD reports favorable breadth (IBD 100 still rising).
  • 8th consecutive week of gains.
Back in Singapore:
  • GS sparked off a round of selling in the local market. Now we have had 5 days of almost continuous broad-based selling. My broker suggested that this is a safer time to buy, as all the contras are wiped out.
  • Also gives an opportunity to select stocks based that have retraced slightly (not below a previous low) on low vol... as a way to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Tiong Woon

Bought at 56c (21-Apr-10), healthy retracement on low vol:

Sold several days later, as it gapped below moving average during the ,market's broad based fall.

May have been a mistake to sell, as vol was low when it fell.

I think the mistake here was the original buy decision - buying in an overbought market, and also buying a stock with cut-loss too far away.

Sold Osim

15 lots at 0.92 on 22-Apr-10.

It was (and still is) not completely certain that the stock is undergoing distribution:
  • Was only one day's selling.
  • Market fell heavily, and broadly that week too.
So hard to tell....One reason for selling was because of the high drawdown (stop loss at 0.87).

Don't think this trade was a mistake... it just didn't work out.

Bad Trade: Straits Asia

Bought 6 lots at 2.34, sold at 2.11.

Mistake was to buy when the market was overbought. Must learn patience. Don't have to be invested, even in a bull market.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Sold Capitamall Asia

Sold Capitamall Asia on 21st Apr, at 2.21.

Not a shred of anything bullish in the chart:

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Bought OSIM, Parkway

  • Breakout after flat for 3 weeks.
  • Bought 15 lots @ 95.5 cents
Long term chart shows next resistance at $1.12:

Short term chart shows previous low at 87.5c (cut loss slightly more than 8%):

  • bought 5 lots @ $3.25
  • healthy retracement, still in uptrend. Support probably 3.20 (MA).
[Updated 25/Apr/10]

It has retested 3.14 twice since then. This level is also a previous high.

Was a mistake to buy this too soon, before the support became apparent, by retested at least once... or having a clear low..., which we still don't have, so not sure if this is it.

Still, the retracement is healthy:
  • low vol
  • Did not fall much in the broad-based selloff that lasted the whole of last week.
Will hold for now.

Accumulation is more apparent on weekly chart.

Fortis is still accumulating, up to 25% by 29th Mar.

Sold Venture

Sold 2 lots at $9.51.

Still in uptrend, but overbought, approaching resistance.

It has shot up on healthy accumulation, from 8.36 to 9.50, 10% in 3 weeks. I bought halfway through, so 5% profit in 7 days. Since support is below my buy price, decided to take profit.

May be able to buy back on a healthy retracement, if it could establish a support level.

Sold ARA

Sold 15 lots @ $1.17.

An uncertain decision:
  • Main reason to sell was that it was not rising, even in a bull market. And I'm impatient.
  • But falling MACD with steady price can mean that it is just working off its overbought condition...
  • ... but stock is still in an uptrend...
  • in a bull market.
  • Uncertain price action, yesterday: accumulation, today: distribution.
This decision is either going to look very smart or very dumb with hindsight, but when pulling the trigger, everything is uncertain.

Sold CWT

Sold 20 lots @ 1.04.

Although not 100% the uptrend is broken, the weight of evidence points to it:

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Accumulation examples

I missed these: Accumulation shown by small bursts up on high vol and retracing healthily on low vol.


Straits Asia:

Missed this one as I was busy at work yesterday, had already shot up after I looked at it.

Don't chase now, too risky...I'm half invested in a bull market, so doing OK...the bear can appear and turn profits into losses within a few days, like in Jan. Buying on pullback will help to avoid this.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Bought Venture

Yesterday 5th Apr 10, bought 2 lots Venture @ 9.04.

I told my broker I was interested in the morning, after it broke through $8.98, she called me and said that this could be an opportunity if it holds that level...

Support levels are:
  • $8.98 (recent high)
  • $8.63 to 8.66 (previous low... but not clear)
  • $8.38 (clearly the previous low) - I'll take this as my cut loss level for now.

Sold Ho Bee, SC Global

Mon 5th Apr, sold:
  • 11 lots Ho Bee @ $1.84
  • 10 lots SC Global @ $1.86
Main reason for selling was that my cut loss level was too far down...was a mistake to buy. Secondly, they were not performing even in a bull market.

Made small loss on the brokerage.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Don't know the market trend...

The Singapore market has been going up:
  • only had short 1-or-2 day pullbacks in the past few weeks...
  • not enough to remove the contra players and create any short-term oversold condition.. where I can enter safely.
Not sure of the trend: await direction from Uncle Sam.

The US market has not significantly corrected, and is still overbought.... don't know what the trend is:
  • The market has moved in a tepid way (several distribution days and bearish candlestick formations in the last week)....
  • but it has still been rising, killing the shorts.
  • IBD's tone changes daily.
Now that 1st quarter window dressing and the low-vol Easter week is over, wait to see what happens...

Dur to the uncertainty, I would buy on retracement, instead of breakouts.