Quick update

Added a few more shorts (2%), and sold a little gold (1%). 

I expect Trump escalates after market close tonight (8am tmr Asia time).

Got Shorter

Reached 45% short.

Around 4% of that is really low beta stuff, so its more like 41% short.

I'm comfortable with that as the market is now overbought.  Rallied for 3 days.

Reloaded shorts

I reloaded my shorts yesterday night, before midnight (noon in NYSE time):

I was looking to go a little shorter again tonight, dunno if I'll get the chance.  The market was overbought last night and did not react well to Trump's speech.  

Uncertain

Kept most shorts, trimmed a few.  Rebounds in bear markets can be vicious for shorts.  Market has the potential to rebound from its oversold position, with VIX at borderline 29.  But has not done so yet.  Still waiting to see when I should trim more or reload for another leg down.

Market seems to be ignoring whatever Trump says.  Before the close, he says "Iran really wants to stop the war", after the market close he'll "obliterate them".  My base case is that the threats (not the war) escalate next week as both sides negotiate.  But it can end tomorrow.  Or Iran (and the Gulf States) can be "obliterated" anytime.

Short term uncertain, medium term moderately bearish.

Still Short

Kept most my shorts as market is crashing.  VIX > 30.  I don't know what happens next or when the rebound is.

My portfolio was up tonight more than 1%, or more than I make in 2 months of my day job.

Time for the weekend.

Gone shorter

Night 3 of the rebound, gotten shorter at the start of the session.  Also bought 1% oil (BNO) as a trade - which is the same as shorting the stock market.

Choppy market with a bearish bias.  This is about as short as I'll get.  Look to cover some on the next drop, probably in 1-4 trading days.  The war can end any day, however unlikely.  Or it can get worse.  Follow the market and don't listen to your beliefs.

Cutting exposure and Shorting again

Market was oversold, Trump made an announcement just before market open to make it pop:

Its a kangaroo market with a bearish bias, use the chance to sell:

• Sold some LATAM stocks.  High beta.  Fundamentally, I want to buy them back again when the war is over.
• Sold SOBO, too small a position to track (spin off)
• Sold the gold which I foolishly bought Friday.  I like my gold position, but it was too big.
• Wanted to sell Malaysia Smelting Corp (tin - industrial metal), but market closed today.
• Added shorts, as they has bounced back to the middle or top 1/3rd of Hedge risk range.

I may be a bit early shorting, by a few hours or a few days.  Would prefer to monitor first, but I need to sleep at night. I can still go shorter.

I think theres a 90% chance the war continues this week.  The chance to strangle the Iranian Regime is too good to pass up.  And Israel & the Gulf States will be in a bad situation if the job isn't completed.  Could be weeks, could be months.  The only real constraint is that it has to end before the mid-terms, probably August.  In this market, thats several lifetimes away.

Small chance the war is over tomorrow.  So keep nimble.  Currently a Kangaroo market, with a good chance of going into a correction.