Quick Update

 Made a few trades since the last update:

• Shorted some Mag7 stocks.  Unfortunately I shorted when they were oversold a few days ago, so the position has bounced into the red.  The addition of Marvell and SpaceX to the S&P500 and Nasdaq should squeeze out Mag 7 and result in selling pressure.
• Used last nights rebound to reload my MSTR short.
• Also increased positions in 'interest rate sensitive stocks' as they corrected a little yesterday.
• High-beta tech (longs) got kicked out.

If the market goes up tonight I may increase my Mag 7 shorts.

Only the last 3 rows here have changed:

After end-of-quarter window dressing tonight, I am bearish on the market for the next few weeks.

Market correction

 The correction is probably a buying opportunity:

• Have cut the EM shorts that were based on rising oil.
• I cut my Memory stocks before the correction, but only by 10%.  Bought it back on the first night of the correction.  Look to increase my memory holdings slightly.    I have to learn to trade around it cause its so volatile.  Daily 10% drops are normal.  And one day the bubble pops - probably not today.
• Sold off copper miners.  Another sector rolling over.
• Bought some lower beta stuff in other sectors.  Anything is lower beta then Memory stonks.
• Covered some crypto shorts last night, hope to reload.

I'm holding 30% net cash, with my fundamental plays (56%), and for short term trades, being long and short really high beta stuff like memory and crypto.

In the next few days/weeks I'd like to buy more Memory, plus lower beta stuff (as trades), and reshort crypto and EMs (the new short targets seem to be mostly oil exporters).  Longer term I'd like to buy gold royalties/miners, but no signal for this yet.

I've be too fast to buy into these past few corrections.  Need to earn to wait - when the market has a potential economic growth slowdown ahead, and VIX/VIXN are in the 20s or 30s, then wait 3 or 4 days into a correction for the market to fall before covering shorts and buying new longs.

Cut exposure

Drastically cut my trading exposure last night.  This week I'd been selling individual holdings as they went bearish, last night I cut a lot:

Why?

• Two spikes in VIX over the past 4 trading days:

VIX is still low compared to previous corrections.  But the spikes are too fast....intraday.

• Sector by sector turning bearish.  Last month Crypto.  Last week high beta tech and oil.  Last night mag7.
• *Possible* growth deceleration in July. 

Quick Update

Shot my load too early.  Was 100% invested Wednesday night, Thursday recovered, Friday the market got hammered:

High beta tech got hammered more:

Past Moves:

• I bought a little more midnight (mid-day) Friday, as my portfolio was down 2%.  It was down another 2% by close.  Now 105% long, 2% cash, 7% short.
• Covered my rate sensitive shorts on Friday.
• Hedgeye's ten year yield's trading risk range had 4 consecutive lower highs on Friday (based on Thursday's closing data).  

• After that (Friday), TLT did not fall when good employment data was released.  If high employment does not make interest rates go up, what will?  Covered my TLT short  and some other rate sensitive stuff.  We may be moving closer to buying gold.

Future Moves:

• Still think its a bull market.  Was going up to fast, everyone on the same side of the boat with too much leverage.  Needed a correction, someone got blown up.  The correction could go on for a few more days.  Or it could be a distant memory by middle of next week.

• But as we go out 3-6 weeks, I want to get more cautious.  Possible stagflation.

• Will probably cover my remaining shorts (EMs) on Monday, as they are down so much and the positions are too small to trim. Reshort on post-correction bounce.  I'll keep my MSTR short since its still sizeable and seems to be uncorrelated with the market, maybe add a little.

Quick Update

Last night (Wed night) was the first day of a correction:

• Bought some space related ETFs on market open.  They are correcting - could be because of the New Glen explosion, could be a sell-the-news event for SpaceX IPO (in which case I'll lose money).  But its a bull market, buy stuff thats going up till it stops.
• Also bought some other low quality techy/AI adjacent stuff.  Shit flies in a Quad 2 bull market.
• Bought a little IWM.
• MSTR is dropping like a rock, regardless of wether the market is up or down.  2 days ago they sold bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends.  I have a good position.  Its falling so fast you can't even short it anymore (SEC uptick rule).  Good chance that bitcoin only recovers after Saylor is carried out in a body bag.
• Sold Google on a small bounce at open.  Small loss.  Its oversold, but Hedgeye risk range has 5 consecutive lower highs.  I don't know why its selling off on news of the Berkshire Hathaway's stake...stock down on good news --> get out.

My IWM and space-crap buying was a bit early, its down this morning.  I'm at 8-9% cash.  Want to buy base metals (incl. copper miners) and small caps, probably in the next 1-2 nights.  Enjoy the bull while it lasts.   "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

Bought Nice Information Services (030190 KS)

Bought a 5% position in Bought Nice Information Services (030190 KS), a credit bureau in Korea.  See the Asian Century Stocks writeup (paid).  Its sells mostly consumer credit scores, and is part of an oligopoly, with past 6% CAGR, trading at single digit PE.  It pays a 4% dividend, or half its profits.  The risks are: Korea is already heavily indebted, the corporate structure, and the stock is illiquid (buying 50 shares can move the price 1%).

Sold Nam Cheong

A Malysian OSV provider that went bankrupt 3 times.  I bought some in July 2024 and again in July 2025.

Name Cheong is a cyclical, not a long term compounder.  It has no moat.  

Trying to estimate their long term operating profit:

I get RM 30c per year, at the current utilisation rate is 58%. 

Increase utilisation to 70% and I get 50-55c per year.  At a maximum possible 85%, I get 80c.

The above does not take into account increased rates, which can push it up more.

The company should do well as the OSV cycle keeps improving.  We may be halfway through - we are nowhere near a the top of a bubble like 2008.  Although the easy money has been made, there's still some meat on the bone.  Main reason for selling is to buy something else.

Its up 3 times since I bought from my average price.  Been a good ride.