Finished buying the dip

Finished buying the dip in the last 2 nights.

Last night I was really lucky to buy 3% gold stocks before market open, just before the Bessent's news that he would buy 30 year bonds.  I bought because it was in the middle of Hedgeye's risk range - which is the best you can get in a strongly trending market - the gold price was inching up - and FOMO:

Its overbought now, after the good news.  I should probably sell some, but its been so hard building a position that I wont.

Now 100% invested.  No cash.  No shorts.

I'm now a pig.  This bull market could last 1 or 2 quarters.  Lets see how it goes.

Bought the dip

Bought a little last night (too early), and a lot tonight:

• Big tech, Gold, commodities, high-beta tech, software, market breadth broadening.
• Sold a little of my healthcare stock.  It seems to go up when everything else goers down.

Am now 6-7% cash.

See if I get a chance to buy more tomorrow.

Still buying. Market overbought now.

I've been buying last week:

• Finally got a chance to buy some gold on Thursday night
• Bought some more ETFs expecting market breadth to expand
• Covered high-beta tech shorts.

The market is overbought right now, so used the chance to sell some trades that weren't working last night.  Try buying different things when the market corrects.  Theres a lot I could buy: more market breadth, commodities, software, high beta tech or EMs.  And my favourite: Gold.  Wait for dips to buy.  Probably wait 2-5 trading days.

Some of my fundamental picks shot up last week: the Japanese stocks and a South American bank.  Up 10-20%.

I remind myself not to get carried away with buying.  Bull market probably lasts 1-2 quarters.  Everything I buy now is a trade.

Its a Bull market!

Now betting on a bull market, I am buying whatever dips or is flat:

Gold looks like its bottomed.  After a 6 month correction.  I want to buy more miners or royalties but haven't had the chance.  The risks are that inflation expectations may rise next months (ie: less chance or rates dropping).  And gold now trades as a risk-on asset so is affected by the war.

Don't get carried away, the bull probably ends within 6 months.  And $100 oil could end everything sooner.

Quick Update

Positions still unchanged, except for "Shorts" and "Trades":

Been a good month:

• My two Japan SAAS stocks are up 30-50% since mid June.
• My LATAM stocks are up in the past 2 months

• Gas pipelines flat
• And my short term trades are working.  Made money shorting EWY and other tech stuff, covered most of it on the way down.  Cumulating in Situational Awareness being taken out by Citadel.

• Also made money buying interest rate sensitive plays, trading in and out.  

So far we've see a bifurcated market, AI and high-beta tech down, (non-AI) software and low-beta up.  The blast wind from the blowup.  Does it continue?  Might depend on if Citadel is unloading their new bargain basement AI stonks.

Once the bodies are carted out, we should go back to our regular programming.  Either:

• A bull market from a few months of rising US growth.
• Or a downward chop from the war.

I don't know what happens.  Just trade whats working till it doesn't.  And remember that cash is a position.

Quick Update. Float like a butterfly.

I am holding a lot of cash, and doing short term trades:

Everything depends on oil (or product) prices, which depends on whatever Trump does next.  I have no advantage in a flip-flop market, I make big money from Trends.  But not now.  No need for me to keep playing a losing game.

My base case is that both sides keep fighting, until one is worn down.  The US does not have any good options left, and the IRGC can be strangled by blockades.  The war could continue for 2 weeks or 2 months.  If it goes on, and real destruction starts to be priced in, Dubai stocks may be worth a look.  Not buying oil because of the flip-flop risk.

Notes:

• Sold some interest rate sensitive stocks and healthcare as they rose.  Taking profits quickly (several days to 2 weeks) in an uncertain market leave me less exposed when the trend changes.
• Bought Copper ETF and some other stocks.
• Sold bonds at a small loss, bond yields are higher.  But the above interest rate sensetive stocks are still working, I don't know why,
• Shorted high beta tech. 
• Crypto *might* be making a comeback.
• Avoided the tech crash on Thurs.
• Thurs was one of my best days from paper gains on my Gas Pipelines, as gas breaks out.

Both my longs and my shorts are working. Small trades.  Don't expect any trend to last.

Neither Here nor There

 Two scenarios for the medium term:

• Rising real GDP growth from Sept onwards, combined with stimulus for the mid-terms propels the market higher.  I want to be 100% long a rising market.  Buy the dips now, don't sell.  Being a pig made me a lot of money in 2024 and 2025.

• Rising crude or product prices derail real growth and hit market confidence.  We go back to our on-again off-again war.   Market chops, slightly downwards.  In this sort of market I want to cut exposure, both long and short.  No FOMO, have a comfortable cash cushion, let the world pass me by.  Only take trades heavily in my favour.  Swing trades, take some profit after a few days.  Any profit is a good profit.  Float like a butterfly.

I don't know which scenario happens.  Maybe some messy combination of both.

I have cut back on my trades and shorts, both cutting losses and taking profit.   Added a LATAM bank:

Lets see how it goes.