Quick Update

 Short term trades:

• Portfolio up bigly on Tuesday, down medium last night.
• Some of my shorts did not work out, cut loss.
• Sold my crypto stonk at a small loss 2 nights ago.  Most of crypto is falling, BTC is dropping like a rock despite tech going up.  Last night shorted my favourite crypto PoS, MSTR.  Its falling so fast its hard to build a decent position. 
• Memory up 15% in Tues night.  I decided to keep it.  Its a bubble, but we don't know wether is 2001 or 1999.  The big question is when Korea/China increases capacity, or HBM demand from Mag7 fades.
• Small position in QTUM also up bigly.
• Added to some Mag7 positions, they are down over the past 2 days while everything else is up.
• Reshorting TLT.  Rising growth and inflation leads to higher rates.

Medium term:

• Looking for signs to buy gold, when rising rate expectations peak.  No sign of this yet.
• Cut my position in Var Energi from 4% to 2%, as WTI/Brent start to break Hedgeye's trend.  The market is pricing in an Iran resolution. 

Long term, conflicting views:

• US is in a growth phase now (mid-terms, tax stimulus, data centre buildout), but there's a chance it turns to stagflation in the next few months.
• Even if we get the growth, end 2026 is probably the peak.  2027 is a bear.

Quick Update

Sold some stocks on the rebound and entered some shorts:

Bitcoin failed, sold it at a small profit.  I should also reduce my crypto stonk.

I am still cautiously bullish.  Its a bull market.  Pricing in a peaceful resolution.  But also seeing stagflation coming up.  Its a battle between growth and stagflation.  Trade in and out a bit.

Quick Update

Tonight is probably the bottom of the dip.

These are my current positions before open.  I intend to cover a small amount of shorts, reducing them to core positions.  Also want to reduce some losing positions.  And buy more.  I may go to -ve 3 or 4% cash.

Biggest "Trade" positions are bitcoin, tech stuff (Quantum and memory), IWM, Industrials, copper, China.  Stuff that should go up with economic growth, inflation and bubbles.

I think the Iran war will resume sometime.  But today its a bull market, in a growing economy (even with rising inflation).  Today the market says BTFD.

Buying the Dip

I was buying small dips through last week, making money on the way up.  Friday's opex correction erased all those gains, I bought more.  A crypto stonk, copper, EMs.

I also bought some shorts, mostly other EMs.  And they were making money even before Friday's fall.

Now down to around 4% net cash.   Excluding another 4% short.

I'll keep buying the dip.  Could last till Wed (Nvdia's results).

Quick Update

Still uncertain about the market, but tech is powering ahead:

• Cut back my gold position, due to rising economic growth and rates.  This probably reverses in the next few months.  I am looking to buy it back again.
• Tried to add some growth.  Added small amounts of Q's and Korea (EWY) last night: only 0.5% each as they didn't dip enough.
• Still holding bitcoin at my max position of 5%.  Not trading in and out yet, as its going up so strongly.
• Missed the chance to add to copper a few days ago.

I'll look to buy more growth on dips.  As trades.  It could end in a month or two.

Reduced Exposure

Since the rally started a month ago, my performance has been bad.  Minus 1.5% vs plus 8% for SPY:

What happened?  Two things.

First, the stuff I am holding did not go up.

Energy Infrastructure and Var Energi.  Almost 30% of my holdings:

Precious metals (was around 15 to 18% of my portfolio).  Down in the second half of the month, as US economic growth re-asserts itself.  I got stopped out of silver and platinum last week.

A bunch of misc US ETFs.  Mostly flatlined since the 17th:

EMs.  Again flatlined since the 17th, except for Korea (semis):

Second, the market has been volatile, since I went bullish on the 17th.  A few days up, a few days down.  With a slight downward bias.  I hate choppy markets.

Macro doesn't work so well in this kind of environment.  It works well mapping the rates-of-change of the economic cycles.  eg: After N straight quarters of growth, comparisons are so hard you can predict the next few quarter's growth rates will be lower.  But it doesn't work so well in hot wars.  No way to model what Trump or the Mullahs are going to do.

Used yesterday's pop to:

• Cut back on the things not working.  Especially gold.  Ethereum.  
• Cut back some higher beta plays.  Mostly LATAM.
• Cut back some things shot up.  Other EMs and ETFs still working.  I may buy them back at a lower price if I get a chance.

I need to change my mindset.  I'm usually worried about missing out on the next big rally.  Need to remind myself that its OK to hold cash, and I can sit back wait for trades to come to me.  And also to take some profit if the market moves my way for a few days.

I'm not a fund manager trying to raise money.  I don't need to beat SPY all the time.  Can reduce my risk when I'm not comfortable.

I made a lot of money being piggy in the last 2 years.  Time to change, need to be more nimble in this kind of market.  Or maybe just less exposed.

Quick Update: bought the dip

Bought the dip on market open last night.

My cat woke me up at 3am, 1 hour before market close.  I saw stocks were down bigly and bought more.  Bitcoin, ethereum, EMs, silver, platinum.  All under "Trades".

Still managed to get a few more hours sleep before work.

Now I have:

Actually, the cash number looks a bit wrong.  Should be 2 or 3%.   AI.

I am still uneasy over the war.  With the USD, VIX and oil down, the market is pricing in near 100% chance of peace.  I think its too high.  

But I am still bullish, not fighting the market.  Maybe the market is seeing that blocked oil/gas/fertiliser is only a temporary issue - a year's inflation - and is looking past it.

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Update: Tonight I bought some more EM.  Now ~1% cash.  No intention to go further ands buy on margin.  This rally could end in a few months.  Or a few days, if the war starts again.