Sold a little on the bounce

Gold and my portfolio corrected for 4 days before recovering last night.  Sold a little after the bounce because:

• I had too big a position.  It was 17%, excluding 2% silver.  And this is high-beta gold (miners and royalties), not low-beta pussy gold (GLD).  Now its around 14%.  Sometimes you think you can weather a drawdown till it slaps you in the face.
• A medium risk for the gold trade is the rising price of oil/diesel.  Rising inflation increases rate expectations.
• The US is trying to strangle Iran, who has an incentive to increase oil prices, possibly by kinetic action.  Gold trades as a risk-on asset, it fell throughout the war.
• A short term risk is Warsh's decision on the 16th.  I think the market is starting to price in a hike.  Gold either pops or drops that day.

Still think theres a 3/4th chance that gold continues trending upwards, from here and now.  I am bullish long term on gold as a neutral reserve currency, and as a hedge against governments inflating away their debts.  But I was sized too big.

Also got kicked out of some market broadening trades.  Small loss.

Separate from my trading, I sold half of Delfi, Indonesian chocolate manufacturer today.  Will probably sell the rest later:

• I've held it too long.  Over 5 years.  Its a cyclical that trades inversely to cocoa prices, not a compounder.  Its a perpetual value stock.
• Risk of cocoa prices continuing to rise next year from El Nino.
• Increasing Indonesian political risk.  Not the economic cycle, but degrading rule of law and institutions.  For example, they have stopped companies exporting commodities, offered immunity to money laundering charges to people buying government bonds, and replaced the central bank governor.  If things get worse, you could imagine them restricting dividend payouts by companies listed on foreign stock exchanges, for example.
• If we do get an El-Nino cocoa spike into next year, it might be worth buying back again then.

I'm now around 10% in cash.  Can buy a bit more, but I need to remind myself to relax and just take trades when I can.

I expect a bull market till the mid terms.  Bear in Dec or 1H27.  Looking forward to it.

Still a bull market

Not much change.  Sold some losers, ride the winners:

• Sold some things that didn't work out.  High beta tech, and EMs.
• Replaced them with things that are working: gold, copper, precious/industrial metals & healthcare.
• No changes to my fundamental picks.  The Japanese SAAS stocks, NICE Information Services and the LATAM banks have been rising nicely.

Still think its a bull market.  I am 100% invested so cannot take advantage of Friday night's drop.

My portfolio is up nicely, nearly 4% in the past month.  Lets see how long it goes on for.

Finished buying the dip

Finished buying the dip in the last 2 nights.

Last night I was really lucky to buy 3% gold stocks before market open, just before Bessent's news that he would buy 30 year bonds.  I bought because it was in the middle of Hedgeye's risk range- which is about the best opportunity you can get in a strong trend, the gold price was inching up, and FOMO:

Its overbought now, after the good news.  I should probably sell some, but its been so hard building a position that I wont.

Now 100% invested.  No cash.  No shorts.

I'm now a pig.  This bull market could last 1 or 2 quarters.  Lets see how it goes.

Bought the dip

Bought a little last night (too early), and a lot tonight:

• Big tech, Gold, commodities, high-beta tech, software, market breadth broadening.
• Sold a little of my healthcare stock.  It seems to go up when everything else goers down.

Am now 6-7% cash.

See if I get a chance to buy more tomorrow.

Still buying. Market overbought now.

I've been buying last week:

• Finally got a chance to buy some gold on Thursday night
• Bought some more ETFs expecting market breadth to expand
• Covered high-beta tech shorts.

The market is overbought right now, so used the chance to sell some trades that weren't working last night.  Try buying different things when the market corrects.  Theres a lot I could buy: more market breadth, commodities, software, high beta tech or EMs.  And my favourite: Gold.  Wait for dips to buy.  Probably wait 2-5 trading days.

Some of my fundamental picks shot up last week: the Japanese stocks and a South American bank.  Up 10-20%.

I remind myself not to get carried away with buying.  Bull market probably lasts 1-2 quarters.  Everything I buy now is a trade.

Its a Bull market!

Now betting on a bull market, I am buying whatever dips or is flat:

Gold looks like its bottomed.  After a 6 month correction.  I want to buy more miners or royalties but haven't had the chance.  The risks are that inflation expectations may rise next months (ie: less chance or rates dropping).  And gold now trades as a risk-on asset so is affected by the war.

Don't get carried away, the bull probably ends within 6 months.  And $100 oil could end everything sooner.

Quick Update

Positions still unchanged, except for "Shorts" and "Trades":

Been a good month:

• My two Japan SAAS stocks are up 30-50% since mid June.
• My LATAM stocks are up in the past 2 months

• Gas pipelines flat
• And my short term trades are working.  Made money shorting EWY and other tech stuff, covered most of it on the way down.  Cumulating in Situational Awareness being taken out by Citadel.

• Also made money buying interest rate sensitive plays, trading in and out.  

So far we've see a bifurcated market, AI and high-beta tech down, (non-AI) software and low-beta up.  The blast wind from the blowup.  Does it continue?  Might depend on if Citadel is unloading their new bargain basement AI stonks.

Once the bodies are carted out, we should go back to our regular programming.  Either:

• A bull market from a few months of rising US growth.
• Or a downward chop from the war.

I don't know what happens.  Just trade whats working till it doesn't.  And remember that cash is a position.