Peace Deal

Was caught offside.  The market was overbought, and should have fallen on any news that fell short of a peace deal.  We got a peace deal.

I think there's an 80% chance it will stick:

• Trump doesn't want economic disruption to derail the mid-terms.
• The IRCG doesn't want to be overthrown after Iran's economy is bombed into oblivion.

The Israelis might de-rail it.  Or parts of the IRGC (compartmentalised from each other) may keep shooting.  The Gulf states might want to finish the IRGC, but have no militaries.

Changed my positions:

• Covered all my shorts.  Lost ~1.5% in a night from them.  Its probably the worst time to do it, but once I'm wrong I prefer to cut my positions and start with a clean slate.
• Covered my short term war trades (BNO, Corn).  Kept Var Energi as its a low cost producer.
• Loaded up on some more EMs.   LATAM stocks, the high-beta ones that I sold before.  An India stock, as India was badly affected by the war.
• Looked at Dubai, but not attractive.  I think Dubai recovers - from blown up high-rises to normalcy - but there will be a new geopolitical risk premium unless the IRGC is overthrown.  The Iran drone risk.   The stocks just weren't valued attractively enough.  eg: Dubai stock exchange at 20X recurring earnings.
• Delfi (Indonesian chocolate company) shot up 15% on no news, maybe because of the peace deal.

Looking for more things to buy that were affected by the war.  Maybe EMs, maybe copper.

Quick update

Added a few more shorts (2%), and sold a little gold (1%). 

I expect Trump escalates after market close tonight (8am tmr Asia time).

Got Shorter

Reached 45% short.

Around 4% of that is really low beta stuff, so its more like 41% short.

I'm comfortable with that as the market is now overbought.  Rallied for 3 days.

Reloaded shorts

I reloaded my shorts yesterday night, before midnight (noon in NYSE time):

I was looking to go a little shorter again tonight, dunno if I'll get the chance.  The market was overbought last night and did not react well to Trump's speech.  

Uncertain

Kept most shorts, trimmed a few.  Rebounds in bear markets can be vicious for shorts.  Market has the potential to rebound from its oversold position, with VIX at borderline 29.  But has not done so yet.  Still waiting to see when I should trim more or reload for another leg down.

Market seems to be ignoring whatever Trump says.  Before the close, he says "Iran really wants to stop the war", after the market close he'll "obliterate them".  My base case is that the threats (not the war) escalate next week as both sides negotiate.  But it can end tomorrow.  Or Iran (and the Gulf States) can be "obliterated" anytime.

Short term uncertain, medium term moderately bearish.

Still Short

Kept most my shorts as market is crashing.  VIX > 30.  I don't know what happens next or when the rebound is.

My portfolio was up tonight more than 1%, or more than I make in 2 months of my day job.

Time for the weekend.

Gone shorter

Night 3 of the rebound, gotten shorter at the start of the session.  Also bought 1% oil (BNO) as a trade - which is the same as shorting the stock market.

Choppy market with a bearish bias.  This is about as short as I'll get.  Look to cover some on the next drop, probably in 1-4 trading days.  The war can end any day, however unlikely.  Or it can get worse.  Follow the market and don't listen to your beliefs.