Quick Update

Market up a lot in the past 2 days.  Took profit on some Big Tech, software and crypto.  Covered some shorts.  Then bought back the crypto end of Friday's session after it corrected.

Next week, look to take a little more profit, then Short more.  Prefer to short stuff that: even apart from high rates/oil, will do badly in a contracting economy.  I might still be short it 3 to 6 months later.

Quick Update

Just before market close Thurs 1st Oct US time.  Market up.  Sold Oil.  Added to my shorts in small increments:

Quick Update

Last 2 nights:

• Added some Big Tech longs.  Then took some profit.
• Cut some of the Crypto trades that weren't working last night.

Day-to-day many individual trades I'ver taken are too choppy.  I may consider:

• Take profit on individual trades sooner.  On extreme overbought/oversold.  Sell/cover half, leave the other half to run.
• Only trade the more liquid ETF.  Ignore ETFs and stocks with a high spread - only experienced traders should touch them.
• Position size by volatility.  Or simply only trade the lower beta ETFs.  eg: If I was trading gold, pick GLD instead of GDXJ.  Less likely to be shaken out.

Reframe what I am trying to do:

• Even through the market as a whole is unclear, there are clear trends.  Look at three month charts of bitcoin/ETH (up), Apple/MSFT/NVDA (up), XLU (down) or the Russell (down).
• I'm trying to jump on board the trends, at a safer place where I don't lose too much when the trend changes, and in a way that I won't get shaken out by noise.

Under current conditions - near the end of the economic cycle, with rising rates, fighting an oil-war in the mid-East - take smaller and safer trades.  Don't swing for the fences.

Portfolio down; Sold LATAM

Portfolio was down 1% last night: mostly from LATAM and gold.

I sold 2 of my LATAM positions.   These were longer term trades, or shorter term investments.  Bought several quarters ago as South America had upcoming elections expected to swing to the right.  Now thats behind us, the macro outlook for the next few quarters is bad, and the price action starting to reflect this.  They were cyclicals (banks), not buy-and-hold-forever stocks.  Took profits of 20% and 35%.

I need to think about the remaining LATAM position.  It fell due to stock specific factors, and the factors above are more balanced.

My new crypto position from last week is down a bit, I could buy more or cut loss.  If it does work out, I must remind myself to take some profits when overbought.  Crypto is really volatile.

Only consolation is that my short term trades, both long and short, are mostly working.  I may take some profit in oil if it keeps going up next few days.  Now 34% net cash.

This year has been tough for my account.  Up 9% YTD, but been through a grinding 9% drawdown in the past 7 months.  I remind myself that I've been through worse, a learning experience.  My trading style does not do well in non-trending markets.  Eventually the market will start trending again, probably to the downside - if it hasn't started already.  Need to be ready for that.

Bought some crypto

After falling one-and-a-half years, crypto broke out last month, I managed to buy a tiny bit.  It broke out again 2 weeks ago and corrected over the past few days, letting me buy bigly, up to a 6% position.  Lets see if it keeps going up.

Other than that, just made a few small trades:

• Managed to add to some shorts, and Europe, Russel, some rate sensitive.
• And to some longs: software, consumer, and refiners (long oil/refiners is that same as shorting the market).

No change over the weekend.  I had thought that Xi and Trump might come to some sort of deal.  For example, the US could allow Iranian oil to be sold to China, if Xi lifted the export ban on refined products.  Instead, the opposite may have happened.

And there was never any chance the Iran/US sides could reach a deal.

Expect the same as before.  Iran gets slowly strangled, as oil/product grinds higher, pulling most stocks down, even as mag7 and the indices rise.  Eventually the IRGC loses effectiveness and Hormuz gets fully restored.

Longer term, expecting a bear market next year.  Here is a good interview:

  

Neither here nor there

Added some shorts plus long oil at market last nite.

Its a mixed market.  Some sectors are going up, many down.  Short some stuff, long others.  It changes, with no overriding themes.

Probably looking to buy some crypto soon and cover some shorts.  Before flipping back to do the opposite a week or two later.

In the short term, rising oil/diesel is grinding almost everything else down through higher rate expectations.  In the long term, I think we are near the end of a multi-year boom.  Stay small, nimble, and don't get attached to anything.  Float like a butterfly.

Wait and See

We don't know how the market will go, so wait and see.

Everything depends on oil and Iran and Houthi news.  We could get a new war or a TACO tomorrow.  My base case is that the US continues to strangle Iran while the Houthis allow non-Saudi oil out.  Crude in the 90s. Inflation grinds up while the market grinds down.

I added some shorts (High Tech Beta) and some trades.   Not much change.

Waiting to add some gold, copper and rate-sensitive shorts.  We'll see if it haoppens.