Saturday, September 30, 2023

My Positions

Still think we're in a market correction heading into a recession.


  • SPY put options are now mostly in the green, but still have a lot of upside - still holding 'em.
  • Decrease my VET holdings a bit when WTI was overbought and VIX rises into the high teens.  Energy equities can get pounded by the wider market even if energy keeps rising.  I'll keep my lower-beta, cash generating, "blue chip" stocks (Woodside, Equinor, CNQ).  WHC's price action has been strong, so I haven't trimmed it.
  • Use the last-2-day rally for the month-end-markup to add more shorts: Regional Banks (KRE), Poland (EPOL), Airlines (JETS) and Tech (XLK)
  • Uranium's (SPUT's) price rise has increased it to 5% of my portfolio.
  • Longer term, its time to start writing a shopping list.  I think it'll be a shallow recession like 2001, not a crisis like 2008.  2024 is an election year, expect the government to drop rates and pump like crazy once the recession starts.
  • But there's no rush to buy.  I can get 4.8% on USD in Interactive brokers and 5.2% in Tbills.  "There is an alternative".

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

My Positions

For investments:

  • Increased TRP to my max of 5%.
For trades:
  • Sold off a lot of gold last week.  Expect higher inflation this month, real rates fall, gold rises.  May get a chance to buy it back cheaper.
  • Copper is not bearish anymore.  Cover my small COPX position.  Was a mistake to hold so long (often against the trend) from middle of last year.
  • Silver bullish again, bought a 0.5% position, may go to 1%.  
Update: 18/Sep/23:
  • Cut Silver, it broke down
  • Took a 1.5% position in WHC, Aussie coal.  Expect price spikes if this winter is cold.  Would go up to 3%.

Update: 27/Sep/23: In the last 2 weeks I:
  • Cut XLF.
  • Took another 1.5% position in WHC.

Update: 28/Sep/23:
  • Take profit on some VET, sell 1%.  Bring down my trading pisition adn VIX nears the 20s.