Friday, July 30, 2021

Bought Tencent and Gold

Took advantage of last weeks China stock turmoil to buy a 2% position in Tencent.  Bot 200 shares at HKD 460.20/share.

My reasons for buying:

  • It owns the omnipresent WeChat platform.   The company is a monster with its tentacles stretching throughout China's technology ecosystem.
  • Its reasonably cheap, at under 30X earnings with 15-20% growth and no net debt.

I am keeping the position to 2% because this stock can go to zero:

  • The VIE structure
  • Geopolitical risk.  How much are any China shares worth if missiles start flying over Taiwan or the South China Sea?

Also bought a big position in GLD, now 9% invested.  I consider gold to be a currency like USD or SGD, so can hold a lot of it.  Expect it to do well with rising inflation over the next few months/quarters.

I'm now almost 100% invested:

The holdings:

Friday, July 16, 2021

Why I want to buy Gold

 Gold may have stopped falling:

In the coming years, I expect periods of high inflation like in the 40's or 70's.  Gold serves as a decent inflation hedge, even if its not a great one:

In the coming quarters, I expect a lower q-on-q growth rate.  Gold does well when growth slows.  One caveat is that even through the growth rate should be slower, GDP growth itself should still be high (mid-to-hight single digits).

In the next few months I think there's a good chance of a market correction.  When market exuberance hits slowing growth.  Think it'll be a small correction like Dec 2018, not a crash like 2020.  Gold hedged against past market corrections well.  I put the chances of a correction this quarter around 50:50.

Gold is the best bet for me now.  Copper may be a better inflation hedge long term, but does badly with slowing growth.  Gold miners will go up more than gold over several quarters, but won't hedge against a correction.  So just hold the shiny yellow stuff paper.

I bought a small 2% position nought during last month's shakeout.  Right now its hard to buy more, its always overbought.  Got a feeling it won't be oversold for a while.

Lots of reasons to buy it.  No reasons not to.  This is my only high conviction trading/investment idea now.