Gold may have stopped falling:
In the coming quarters, I expect a lower q-on-q growth rate. Gold does well when growth slows. One caveat is that even through the growth rate should be slower, GDP growth itself should still be high (mid-to-hight single digits).
In the next few months I think there's a good chance of a market correction. When market exuberance hits slowing growth. Think it'll be a small correction like Dec 2018, not a crash like 2020. Gold hedged against past market corrections well. I put the chances of a correction this quarter around 50:50.
Gold is the best bet for me now. Copper may be a better inflation hedge long term, but does badly with slowing growth. Gold miners will go up more than gold over several quarters, but won't hedge against a correction. So just hold the shiny yellow stuff paper.
I bought a small 2% position nought during last month's shakeout. Right now its hard to buy more, its always overbought. Got a feeling it won't be oversold for a while.
Lots of reasons to buy it. No reasons not to. This is my only high conviction trading/investment idea now.
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