Saturday, December 25, 2021

2022 Roadmap

 I agree with Felix Zulauf's views.  This is my current roadmap:

  • 2022 will be a volatile year unlike the ever-rising markets of 2021.
  • Govt fiscal and monetary policy effects have fallen yoy.  He expects a correction in 1H22.  Maybe 15-30%.  Oil could get to $50.  Tech and "risk-on" assets continue to do badly.
  • Then the Fed will panic and we get a resumption of the bull market into 2023/2024.
  • This will be inflationary, commodities "go wild", oil could go to $200, CPI could be 10%.  Tech and risk-on assets will do well.
  • Eventually inflation forces the Fed to raise rates.  Causing the worst bear market in our lifetime.
  • He "would love to see gold break the 1720 lows to shake out the weak money....High 1600s, low 1700s would be a good entry point."  He would buy for the coming correction in 1H22, but sell during/after the correction.  Longer term he expects a massive gold boom in 2023/24 with the big bear market.

I think this is a good way to picture the future: a pullback after 2021's excesses, followed by an inflationary boom, followed by $200 oil crippling the world economy.

Its a blurry picture and the dates keep changing.  I previously thought we would have a correction in 2H21 - that didn't work out.  Lets see if this time is luckier.

One thing that could destroy this outlook is war.  The Chinese invade Taiwan, brining a new dimension of risk to the Asian & German economies and global US corporations.  Or the Sunni/Shia resume killing each other, driving oil up beforehand.

Predicting the future is more about what *can* happen rather than what will.  Long term predictions are more intellectually gratifying than useful.

I think its time for me to take another stab at buying gold.  I use Hedgeye to time my trades in the short and medium term.

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Goodbye, Aidan

One day, while signing up to some investment forum, I looked around the room trying to think of a username.  A picture of our cat hung on the wall.  So I became BlackCat.

This is his story.

Early 2005.  My wife selected a black kitten from the SPCA.  On the taxi ride home, holding his box in my lap, I opened it and he stared into my eyes.  I knew he would be mine forever.

When we got home he was terrified.  We left him in a room to settle in.  He hid behind the curtains with his little feet showing.  I sat there for an hour to get him to come out.  My wife named him "Aidan".  I called him "cat".

He was scared of everything.  He would hide from the vacuum, from thunder, from any stranger at the door.  When I showered him he would howl like I was murdering him.  He hissed at the vet, who put multiple warnings under his name.

He loved us.  When you held him he purred loudly, you could feel the purrs go through you.  When he was purring in your arms, only the two of you existed and nothing else mattered.

He was demanding.  At dinner time he would meow loudly, a harsh "WAAAHHH", until I put the food bowl in front of him.  He would stand over it and scoff it down loudly.  Somehow, he loved strawberry leaves and yogurt.  He would meow with a psycho look until you gave it to him, then after he gobbled it down he would demand more.

Affectionate, demanding, loud and scared.  Through 14 years he was there for us, through a parade of different jobs, through ups and downs.  Whatever happened, I could pick him up, feel him purr, and everything would be OK.

Late in 2018 he began peeing outside the litter box.  The vet did an MRI scan and said he had a large tumor.  Couldn't tell if it was cancerous, and couldn't operate because he was too old.  "I'm sorry I can't tell you anything good.  Spend some time with him."

We put him in diapers.  Gradually he got slower, walking with a drunken gait.  After his back legs stopped working he would drag himself around with his front legs.  He still loudly demanded food and scoffed it down.  He was stubborn.  When I came home from work he would demand loudly to be picked up.  He rocked sideways with excitement when I reached for him.  I'd put him in my lap and he'd purr and fall asleep.

Last weekend, I had to hold him up to eat his food.  I knew.  I think he did too.  On the last night, he was lying down, couldn't move.  I fed him some yogurt - I can still see his little pink tongue licking it off the spoon.  The vet came the next day.  I held my hand over his little head as he went to sleep for the final time.

Thank You, Aidan.  You bought us joy.  RIP Aidan 2005-2021.

Monday, December 6, 2021

What I'm doing now...


My crystal ball says the inflation rate is decelerating (not deflating).  And every man and his dog is talking about inflation now:

I've stopped buying commodity stocks while I slowly deleverage by adding cash.  Maybe I get another chance to buy if we get a correction in 2Q22.  The crystal ball is blurry and changes a lot.

I still think we're in for a decade of inflation.  US debt is too high.  This is just a short reprieve.

NorNickel, Whitecap, Total Energies and Deterra Royalties look interesting.  Plus maybe ASX and MOEX.

This blog will probably be quiet for a while.