2022 Roadmap

 I agree with Felix Zulauf's views.  This is my current roadmap:

• 2022 will be a volatile year unlike the ever-rising markets of 2021.
• Govt fiscal and monetary policy effects have fallen yoy.  He expects a correction in 1H22.  Maybe 15-30%.  Oil could get to $50.  Tech and "risk-on" assets continue to do badly.
• Then the Fed will panic and we get a resumption of the bull market into 2023/2024.
• This will be inflationary, commodities "go wild", oil could go to $200, CPI could be 10%.  Tech and risk-on assets will do well.
• Eventually inflation forces the Fed to raise rates.  Causing the worst bear market in our lifetime.
• He "would love to see gold break the 1720 lows to shake out the weak money....High 1600s, low 1700s would be a good entry point."  He would buy for the coming correction in 1H22, but sell during/after the correction.  Longer term he expects a massive gold boom in 2023/24 with the big bear market.

I think this is a good way to picture the future: a pullback after 2021's excesses, followed by an inflationary boom, followed by $200 oil crippling the world economy.

Its a blurry picture and the dates keep changing.  I previously thought we would have a correction in 2H21 - that didn't work out.  Lets see if this time is luckier.

One thing that could destroy this outlook is war.  The Chinese invade Taiwan, brining a new dimension of risk to the Asian & German economies and global US corporations.  Or the Sunni/Shia resume killing each other, driving oil up beforehand.

Predicting the future is more about what *can* happen rather than what will.  Long term predictions are more intellectually gratifying than useful.

I think its time for me to take another stab at buying gold.  I use Hedgeye to time my trades in the short and medium term.