Saturday, May 31, 2008

Start of Correction?

Last week, IBD signalled the start of a correction based on a number of distribution days, as well as the breakdown of leading stocks (energy sector).

Part of my trading strategy is to identify the start of downturns in the market, and sell, since we don't know how long any downturn can last. Its from the posts by Larry Livingston in the two year long thread "Do not but on the way down". IBD seems to quite accurately follow the US markets movement for the last year, which is again followed by SGX (about 70% of the time).

I sold everything last week, except for an odd lot of bonus Noble shares not yet credited to my account.


With hindsight, this may not have been the best choice....Noble and Straits Asia, the two commodity stocks that lead the Mar-May bull market, both rose yesterday on high volume - nothing to suggest their uptrend is broken. And from Friday's US market action, there was an accumulation on higher volume, so the 'start of correction' call may have been premature. Need more evidence either way.

Oh well, watch and learn.