Sunday, July 24, 2022

Sold Swire Properties, bought Woodside. And Dreaming of the next bull.

Sold my 5% position in Swire Properties, I no longer want to hold HK/China stocks due to geopolitical risk.  I can trade them, but it makes no sense holding for a measly 5% dividend, when they can all go to zero in an instant if one man decides to invade Taiwan.  Don't think it will happen, but even a 1 in 5 risk is too much.

I was expecting a cyclical China/HK rally, which started as China recoverd from its slowdown before the rest of the world and Chinese people spend after being locked up.  But seems to have been cut short.  Dunno why, maybe by new Covid variants.  Given up waiting.

Added a 2.5% to my Woodside position, bringing it to 5%.  Its exposed to China through LNG, but won't go to zero.

Still got another 4-5% position in Fortune REIT to dispose of.  I want to buy Singapore banks later, in the depths of the bear market.  Also sold my 4-5% position in Fortune REIT.

The S&P 500 is either consolidating or in a bear market rally: up 10% since mid-June:

I've added another 2% short (COPX) last week.  Now I'm:

  • 89% invested, 11% cash
  • 47% short (based on my shorting price, ~45% short based on Friday's closing).  Cash from the short positions is separate from the 11% cash above.
The market could easily rally another 10% over the next month and my short positions turn into a loss.   I'm holding and betting that its temporary - that the bear market continues for another 3-9 months.  I can't see how the bear ends until we:
  1. Work through the slowdown (hangover) from withdrawal of last year's stimulus (till around the end of the year), and...
  2. Until the Fed changes course (maybe with lower inflation and higher unemployment figures).

In my dreams, I short the market to its lows, make a pile of money, then turn around and go long to ride the next inflationary boom.  I want to buy Singapore banks, commodity producers (oil/aluminium/copper/tin), some cyclical beneficiaries of de-globalisation.  And a little of bit of "stuff that can't be valued but has a cool story and can fly in a bull market" (chainlink, bitcoin, MercadoLibre).