Saturday, September 30, 2023

My Positions

Still think we're in a market correction heading into a recession.

Trades:

  • SPY put options are now mostly in the green, but still have a lot of upside - still holding 'em.
  • Decrease my VET holdings a bit when WTI was overbought and VIX rises into the high teens.  Energy equities can get pounded by the wider market even if energy keeps rising.  I'll keep my lower-beta, cash generating, "blue chip" stocks (Woodside, Equinor, CNQ).  WHC's price action has been strong, so I haven't trimmed it.
  • Use the last-2-day rally for the month-end-markup to add more shorts: Regional Banks (KRE), Poland (EPOL), Airlines (JETS) and Tech (XLK)
Investments:
  • Uranium's (SPUT's) price rise has increased it to 5% of my portfolio.
  • Longer term, its time to start writing a shopping list.  I think it'll be a shallow recession like 2001, not a crisis like 2008.  2024 is an election year, expect the government to drop rates and pump like crazy once the recession starts.
  • But there's no rush to buy.  I can get 4.8% on USD in Interactive brokers and 5.2% in Tbills.  "There is an alternative".

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