Turning Bullish. Buying more.

Last night Hedgeye became bullish on a few remaining risk-on commodities: copper and bitcoin.  Pivoting to Quad 3 (decreasing yoy gdp growth rate, increasing yoy inflation growth rate).  Free release of their daily Macro Show from before the market open:

Key points, from short term to long term:

• Copper and bitcoin turned bullish trend, following silver and softs in the last few days.
• However copper and silver were overbought (before last night's open), so I may not want to jump in and buy everything right now.  I bought 1% silver yesterday morning, after the FOMC's "sell-the-news" correction.
• Kospi and semis not yet bullish (14:01)
• Bullish on EMs (India, Indonesia, Malaysia).
• Oil still bearish (28:28), the last major commodity holding out.  WTI's trend level (right now) is 76, if it goes above that it becomes bullish.
• No recession (24:05 and 25:53).
• Bullish on 'the market' (10:42) due to vol dropping.  Quad 3 has historically been good for the S&P 500 because its dominated by big-tech.  They're not buying the index, theres better things to buy.
• Projected US quad 3 in Q4, followed by quad 2 then quad 3 (38:52 background chart)
• Inflation (21:47) rate project to drop to 2.X% this quarter, then to increase to over 3% in 2Q25. 

How do I use Hedgeye?

• Helping to decide when to buy things.  For example, I delayed loading up on oil stocks for the past 2 months after oil went bearish on 23rd July.
• Getting out.  I got out of my high volatility and non-cashflow producing assets (eg: silver, bitcoin, a high beta copper producer) in late July to early August, as one-by-one they entered bearish trend.  After which the market did its mini-crash.
• Short term, they trade in-and-out a lot, increasing positions when something corrects and selling when it overextended.  Over a few days.  I don't, cause I'm not a good trader.

In summary:

• I want to buy commodities again: copper, silver and bitcoin.  Except oil.  Turn around and sell if they go to bearish trend.  Look to buy on dips.
• If someone gives you a crystal ball which can time the markets, you should use it.  Even if the ball is a little cloudy and keeps changing.  Be a few steps in front of the herd.

Buy commodities, except oil...unless they change trend.