Sunday, January 9, 2022

Quick Update: Kazakhstan

Riots have erupted in Kazakhstan sparked by rising gas prices, but fanned by inequality and corruption.  This is the risk in investing in poor, one-party states.  The situation may be more stable today after Russian troops restored order.

Kazatomprom stock has fallen around 20%.  I believe the unrest will not directly affect Kazatomprom's output.  I think the Russians will take control, and Kazakhstan will become a Russian satellite again.  Back in the USSR.

Peter Zeihan gives a maps and history of the events, with the above prediction, plus some of its affects on oil/gas markets:


My best guess is that hes right.  It is unfortunate for the Kazakhs, but a poor, empty country of 20m people next to Russia can not be free.

This Al Jazeera interview (starting 11:30), suggests that President Tokayev has taken power from the unpopular Nursultan Nazarbayev, who was retired but still influential behind the scenes.

I've kept my Kazatomprom stock, too late to sell now, the bad news is priced in.  Not buying more as I'm already at my max position size.

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