Monday, March 30, 2026

Uncertain

Kept most shorts, trimmed a few.  Rebounds in bear markets can be vicious for shorts.  Market has the potential to rebound from its oversold position, with VIX at borderline 29.  But has not done so yet.  Still waiting to see when I should trim more or reload for another leg down.

Market seems to be ignoring whatever Trump says.  Before the close, he says "Iran really wants to stop the war", after the market close he'll "obliterate them".  My base case is that the threats (not the war) escalate next week as both sides negotiate.  But it can end tomorrow.  Or Iran (and the Gulf States) can be "obliterated" anytime.

Short term uncertain, medium term moderately bearish.

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