Quick Update

Covered some shorts early this morning:

Its a short term move.  Expect to put them back again, with more, in the next few trading days.

Its been a tough week.  Choppy market with the change in daylight savings time mean I have to wake up at 3+ to place trades.  Its been stressful, with the market changing so frequently.  Twice I got caught where I made some moves, the market moved against them the next night, then moved back (and more), validating those moves.

Combined with my day job, barely pulling through.  Need to take this weekend to rest and exercise.

Performance last week is has been drip-drip-dripping down, but still OK YTD at 14%.  It still mostly follows gold (miners?):

I try to remind myself that in this business, a 60% hit rate is good.

I give an 80% chance the war continues next week, with the market beginning to price in sustained inflation and supply disruptions for basic materials.  Anything can happen.  Trump can TACO anytime.  The war can grind on for months.  Or the Iranian regime can be overthrown, bringing a new Golden Age of peace to the Middle East.

There will be opportunities at the end of this, I don't know when.  The war has to be over by the mid-terms.

Meanwhile: reduce high beta exposure, trade short positions, and try not to die.