Market was oversold, Trump made an announcement just before market open to make it pop:
Its a kangaroo market with a bearish bias, use the chance to sell:
- Sold some LATAM stocks. High beta. Fundamentally, I want to buy them back again when the war is over.
- Sold SOBO, too small a position to track (spin off)
- Sold the gold which I foolishly bought Friday. I like my gold position, but it was too big.
- Wanted to sell Malaysia Smelting Corp (tin - industrial metal), but market closed today.
- Added shorts, as they has bounced back to the middle or top 1/3rd of Hedge risk range.
I may be a bit early shorting, by a few hours or a few days. Would prefer to monitor first, but I need to sleep at night. I can still go shorter.
I think theres a 90% chance the war continues this week. The chance to strangle the Iranian Regime is too good to pass up. And Israel & the Gulf States will be in a bad situation if the job isn't completed. Could be weeks, could be months. The only real constraint is that it has to end before the mid-terms, probably August. In this market, thats several lifetimes away.
Small chance the war is over tomorrow. So keep nimble. Currently a Kangaroo market, with a good chance of going into a correction.
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