Hedgeye turned bullish on China after stocks rose on stimulus news. They project Q4 has increasing yoy Chinese growth, but it may only last a quarter. I'm not buying due to long-term Taiwan risk. The majority of my portfolio is commeodities, which is another way of playing China anyway.
Commodities have kept going up since Hedgeye pivoted to quad 3. I bought 2% silver and 2% platinum on dips. And 1% bitcoin, which has not had a real dip. Plus a 1% fomo buy in copper (FCX) at the highs. Look to buy a little more bitcoin before I'm finished. Now 110% invested.
Hartalega jumped limit-up 30% in a day a few days after I bought it on news of increased US tariffs on China gloves. I had not realised just how fuk'n volatile this stock was, this is the second 30% day in this year. If I had, I may have sized it a bit smaller. I still think its undervalued as the glove market recovers over the next 3 years. Biggest risk is rising Ringgit.
Oil still bearish Hedgeye trend. Which may help Harta above.
My "Turnarounds and Lottery Tickets" - like Purecycle Tech (good production news), and the whole Singapore OSV/rig sector going up - have done well. Still plenty of room to run.
Gold has been slowly floating up, unnoticed, week-by-week.
Tin has moved up and down finishing off flat. Maybe because semis are still down.
Last night Hedgeye became bullish on a few remaining risk-on commodities: copper and bitcoin. Pivoting to Quad 3 (decreasing yoy gdp growth rate, increasing yoy inflation growth rate). Free release of their daily Macro Show from before the market open:
Key points, from short term to long term:
Copper and bitcoin turned bullish trend, following silver and softs in the last few days.
But they were overbought (before last night's open), so I may want to wait a bit before buying. I bought 1% silver yesterday morning, after the FOMC's "sell-the-news" correction.
Bullish on 'the market' (10:42) due to vol dropping. Quad 3 has historically been good for the S&P 500 because its dominated by big-tech. They're not buying the index, theres better things to buy.
Projected US quad 3 in Q4, followed by quad 2 then quad 3 (38:52 background chart)
Inflation (21:47) rate project to drop to 2.X% this quarter, then to increase to over 3% in 2Q25.
How do I use Hedgeye?
Helping to decide when to buy things. For example, I delayed loading up on oil stocks for the past 2 months after oil went bearish on 23rd July.
Getting out. I got out of my high volatility and non-cashflow producing assets (eg: silver, bitcoin, a high beta copper producer) in late July to early August, as one-by-one they entered bearish trend. After which the market did its mini-crash.
Short term, they trade in-and-out a lot, increasing positions when something corrects and selling when it overextended. Over a few days. I don't, cause I'm not a good trader.
In summary:
I want to buy commodities again: copper, silver and bitcoin. Except oil. Turn around and sell if they go to bearish trend. Look to buy on dips.
If someone gives you a crystal ball which can time the markets, you should use it. Even if the ball is a little cloudy and keeps changing. Be a few steps in front of the herd.
Buy commodities, except oil...unless they change trend.
