Update on this company - it hasn't changed after my initial post more than a year ago.
Start with the tin price - it was stable in 2023: lower than 1H 2022, higher than 2H 2022:
The company has 2 segments, Tin Mining and Tin Smelting:
Smelting profits should be more stable, but were impacted by Covid in 2022 and the closing of an old smelting facility in 2023. Its hard to tell which of the 4Q23 costs are one-offs or which are normal operating costs (either recurring or randomly occurring ones). They have moved to a new smelter in P. Indah, which started operating in 2021. They will start dismantling the old Butterworth smelter in 2024.
The biggest risk seems to be that smelting profits/losses are inconsistent (especially Q423's loss), and we don't know how long this will continue.
Mining profits tend to follow the tin price, with variable revenue and fixed costs:
Don't overthink it. Its a company that primarily makes money from Tin Mining - the profits and share price follow the tin price.
The company has adopted a dividend policy paying out at least 30% profits. The 7 sen dividend is 34% of 2022 profits. 2023 earnings look "normal" - not too peak-ish. At RM 2.10, it would be trading at 10 times 2023 earnings.
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