Sunday, February 4, 2024

Position update

- Covered half my short France and short Germany positions, realised a loss of about 1% of my portfolio.

- KRE is swan diving, this is not a banking crisis, just banks making losses and cutting dividends.  So no Fed rescue.  Wait for it to fall further before covering.  My short position is still at a loss.  Just remember to sell once everyone is talking about it (regardless of profit or loss).

Current positions:

Nearly 25% cash and gold.  I am growing less sure we get a recession, maybe its limited to certain parts of the economy, or is a series of small "rolling recessions" hitting different parts of the economy at different times (eg: crypto, tech, cars, CRE, small banks, junk bonds), while other parts are supported by government spending.  We could be almost through it.  The Mag7 bubble will pop one day, but its still bubbling now.

Want to cover my shorts slowly.  Want to buy a bit more too.  Oil producers, the Philippines Stock exchange, Glencore (mostly thermal coal) and copper producers look interesting.

No comments: