Quick Update

Sold my Uranium stocks (from June), as Hedgeye's trend turned bearish.  I don't know if its a false signal, but since I bought using Hedgeye's trend signals, I'll sell by them.  Could be from the possibility of peace with Russia.  Made 12% over 2 months, which is OK.

Also sold my small position in LEU, a US uranium enricher which I bought last year.  It was a tiny 0.5% position which went up 3x.  Can't complain.

I bought 8% Ethereum in the brief (couple-of-days) correction at the start of August.  Also bought more IWM and Q's in the current correction.  I want to me more than fully invested for this bull market.  I'm now 119% invested.

Quick Update

Correction

I was caught by surprise, but still think this is a short term correction.  The market went up too far and some FOMO has to be shaken out.  It might be over on Monday, or may last 2 weeks.  Everything still points to the bull continuing: VIX at 20, the economic outlook for the next 6 months, and Trump needing to pump after that.

I am 112% invested.  Bought a little ETH and Q's on Friday.  Would like to load up on more ETH.

Other Risks

Trump's reversal on Russia and the passing of the 'Russia Bill' - giving him authority to levy a 500% tariff on countries that import Russian oil after 8th Aug - are good for oil stocks, but bad for India, China and (maybe) Brazil.  It makes it less likely for a trade deal to be reached, more likely for the world to spilt into different trading blocks.

• Russia produces ~9m bpd, out of approximately 105m bpd used worldwide.
• Trump still wants to keep the oil price down, and the Saudi's will help.  We may see oil up to $100, but I don't see it getting any higher.
• A 50% tariff decreases the chance of a US-China trade deal.  
• Non-Aligned countries, like India/Brazil have more incentive to go over to China's side.
• India hit.  How much of their recent hot GDP growth has been from cheap Russian energy?
• Increases the change of an Iran deal.  Iran is currently not a threat, even to Israel.  Israelis gotta finish their war quickly.  Short term peace in the ME.  Not lasting peace, while the Iranian regime is still around.
• If countries don't buy Russian oil/gas, what happens to it?  Either the pipe/ship it all to countries that don't care (like China), or stop production.
• And if so, Russia runs our of money.  What can they sell?  Gold down?
• Buyers buy from the US instead.  And the whole world wants US LNG ro reduce their bilateral trade deficits.  Longer tanker or LNG Carrier routes.
• What if the US navy starts enforcement against 'dark fleet' ships carrying Russian oil/gas.

My oil stocks should do well.  I have no India exposure, but some China and Brazil.

No Sign of the US Bull Market Ending

 From Hedgeye:

• We're in Quad 2
• Implied Volatility falling.  eg; SPY, IWM, Bitcoin
• 1-month realised SPY vol still below 3-month vol. 
• USD is now rising (short term).  However gold, copper, oil correlations to USD have dropped.  Gold and copper bullish trend.  Oil's trend whipsawing.  Industrial commodities, China, Korea and semis bullish.  The rising USD affects some EMs - they are now short Philippines (which I am still long through the Philippines Stock Exchange), and India (I no longer hold through FIH.U).

Made some short term trades, small positions.  Bought some:

• Crypto stonks
• 1-month calls on IWM.

Most of my Asian stocks are going up.  They're all different, company-by-company.  I'm a few percent over 100% long:

Yes, there are signs of exuberance, especially for tech/AI.  But we haven't seen Hawk Tuah, Cum Rocket or ETH Rock or levels of stupidity yet. No signs the bubble pops yet.  Enjoy it while it lasts.

Buying more

The correction I expected did not happen:

• The Market corrected Monday night, after being overbought
• That night Trump released "Tariff Letters" promising new tariffs by 1st Aug to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.  But the next day, Asian markets didn't care.  
• The US market recovered the next day, even as Trump promised more Tariff Letters.

When the market doesn't fall on bad news its time to buy.  Last night I bought more Latam stocks and Didi (paid report) - I am finally buying China as there are rumours that Xi has lost power, and they have projected growth this quarter...so if I can find any China stocks I would like to hold, I may as well.  There is a chance they announce that Xi is being given a ceremonial post far away somewhere in August.

Also topping up on silver, and considering some energy related companies.   I am now over 100% invested and would like to reach 110%.  Themes are inflation, commodities and EMs.  And just a little bit of China.

Sandstorm

Sandstorm, one of the gold royalty companies I own, has had a takeover offer.  That is the reason why their price has been continually rising the past month.  The offer, if accepted by 2/3rds of shareholders, will give me shares of Royal Gold in exchange.  I'll probably accept the RGLD shares, either partially or fully.

Cut back some exposure

Cut back some exposure, because there may be a correction next month.  Hedgeye is signalling a probable quad 4 for July.  And Trump's 90-day tariff pause ends on the 8th.   Trump needs to be tougher to remove his chicken label.  The market is ignoring this now.  

Sold Bitcoin & Mexico at small profits.  And adding a small short position.

If we get a correction - and I am not sure - then I think its a quick one, and a buying opportunity

Quick Update. Oil, Gold, Uranium, Poland.

Quick Update.  Showing how I use the Hedgeye signals to choose when to buy and sell.

Oil

Hedgeye's trend signals for WTI/Brent went bullish on 10th June, I bought 1% Var Energi.  Like magic, oil shot up two days later:

My quick thoughts:

• The Saudis are still over supplying oil, Iran only exports 1m+ bpd (officially?), so I don't expect the spike to go higher.  No hundred dollars oil.
• Israel and Iran are too far apart to fight a real war.  Don't think Israel will hit Iran's oil export facilities, as this may damage Saudi tacit support.  Don't think Israel can stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.  This is existential for them, so they gotta try anyway.  They may be attempting regime change.  Long term, this can go any number of ways: 1) Iran regime change, oil down short term, middle-east boom, oil up long term.  2) Iran makes deal, back to status quo.  3) Iran tests and deploys nuclear device, quickly followed by the Saudis.

Now holding ~10.5% oil stocks: Var Energi and CNQ.  Long term I think we have a shortage of oil, but there may be a glut between now and then.

Gold

Bought a gold miner after it dipped on bad Q1 results, and increased my exposure to another royalty company.  Will buy a bit more.  GDX is still bullish Hedgeye trend, but flip-flops a bit.  Maybe because the trend has been bullish so long that everyone knows about it.  Long term I'm still bullish gold and gold miners.  Now holding 11.5% gold miners/royalties.

I subscribe to Mining Stock Monkey for fundamental analysis of gold stocks to buy.

Uranium

I find the best Hedgeye signals are bearish-to-bullish ones after a long bear market.  For example:

Didn't buy URA itself, instead I subscribed to Uranium Insider and bought a bunch of Uranium stocks.  Which are up more than URA.

Poland.  And GPW.

Hedgeye's trend signal for Poland (EPOL) went bearish recently.  GPW (Poland stock exchange) tracks this quite well.  I've been holding it since I bought it just before the Ukraine invasion.  Do I keep holding?  Hedgeye signals can flip-flop a bit - if it was something I wanted to sell I would sell now, but thats not the case here.  It has reasonable fundamentals, so I could buy-and-hold:

• Typical stock exchange: most costs are fixed, so as revenue increases, profits increase more.  And vice versa.
• Pays out 80-90% of its earnings as dividends.  So its not a compounder but does reward shareholders.
• The real question for me is valuation.  Its at a 2024 PE of 15, but 1Q EPS is up 27%.  So the PE might be 11 or 12-ish.  But possibly at the cycle peak.

Honestly, I'm not sure, its not a definite buy or sell here.  I'll probably sell, theres stuff with more upside I can buy as we continue into growth/stagflation for the next few quarters.

Portfolio Update

 Since previous update:

• Increased BTC to 5%.  Bitcoin has since blasted off.  To me, Bitcoin is always a trade, based on Hedgeye's trend signals.
• Sold Equinox Gold (miner), as GDX went bearish trend in Hedgeye.  This has been my weakest performing gold stock.   Gold itself (GLD) is also no longer bullish trend.  Kept Sandstorm (gold royalty company), which I'll hold through the cycle.  Since gold has gone up for about a year-and-a-half, it may spend a few months/quarters consolidating or correcting.  Like Uranium did.
• Bought EWW.  A trade.
• Bought a couple of Latam banks.
• Sold my holdings in SPUT Uranium, the physical Uranium trust, and replaced it with a basket of YOLO Uranium miners.  Higher beta.  Hopefully these companies will one day be able to mine something.
  

I am 100% invested, and everything I have is going up.  Except oil and Hartalega.  Its 'risk on' as we head into June.  July might be a bad month, I'll probably just hold through it depending on the Hedgeye trend signals.

Longer term, the bigger risk is NOT being invested.