Quick Update. Oil, Gold, Uranium, Poland.

Quick Update.  Showing how I use the Hedgeye signals to choose when to buy and sell.

Oil

Hedgeye's trend signals for WTI/Brent went bullish on 10th June, I bought 1% Var Energi.  Like magic, oil shot up two days later:

My quick thoughts:

• The Saudis are still over supplying oil, Iran only exports 1m+ bpd (officially?), so I don't expect the spike to go higher.  No hundred dollars oil.
• Israel and Iran are too far apart to fight a real war.  Don't think Israel will hit Iran's oil export facilities, as this may damage Saudi tacit support.  Don't think Israel can stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.  This is existential for them, so they gotta try anyway.  They may be attempting regime change.  Long term, this can go any number of ways: 1) Iran regime change, oil down short term, middle-east boom, oil up long term.  2) Iran makes deal, back to status quo.  3) Iran tests and deploys nuclear device, quickly followed by the Saudis.

Now holding ~10.5% oil stocks: Var Energi and CNQ.  Long term I think we have a shortage of oil, but there may be a glut between now and then.

Gold

Bought a gold miner after it dipped on bad Q1 results, and increased my exposure to another royalty company.  Will buy a bit more.  GDX is still bullish Hedgeye trend, but flip-flops a bit.  Maybe because the trend has been bullish so long that everyone knows about it.  Long term I'm still bullish gold and gold miners.  Now holding 11.5% gold miners/royalties.

I subscribe to Mining Stock Monkey for fundamental analysis of gold stocks to buy.

Uranium

I find the best Hedgeye signals are bearish-to-bullish ones after a long bear market.  For example:

Didn't buy URA itself, instead I subscribed to Uranium Insider and bought a bunch of Uranium stocks.  Which are up more than URA.

Poland.  And GPW.

Hedgeye's trend signal for Poland (EPOL) went bearish recently.  GPW (Poland stock exchange) tracks this quite well.  I've been holding it since I bought it just before the Ukraine invasion.  Do I keep holding?  Hedgeye signals can flip-flop a bit - if it was something I wanted to sell I would sell now, but thats not the case here.  It has reasonable fundamentals, so I could buy-and-hold:

• Typical stock exchange: most costs are fixed, so as revenue increases, profits increase more.  And vice versa.
• Pays out 80-90% of its earnings as dividends.  So its not a compounder but does reward shareholders.
• The real question for me is valuation.  Its at a 2024 PE of 15, but 1Q EPS is up 27%.  So the PE might be 11 or 12-ish.  But possibly at the cycle peak.

Honestly, I'm not sure, its not a definite buy or sell here.  I'll probably sell, theres stuff with more upside I can buy as we continue into growth/stagflation for the next few quarters.