Pakuwon Jati is an Indonesian real estate company that develops and sells residential properties, while keeping and renting out the malls they surround. A good (free) 2021 deep dive is from Asian Century Stocks. Since then the've moved into a net debt position. In their most recent 9 months, recurring income (mall/office rental, management fees and hotels) was 80% of their earnings. Half their income is from Surabaya, around 40% from Jakarta, and 8% from Yogyakarta. Most of their recurring income is from large, new malls, with a few hotels and offices.
At IDR 420, it trades at ~11X recurring earnings (ie: ignoring property sales). Why is it cheap? Indonesia has been hammered (along with high USD debt countries India, Thailand, Philippines) by a high USD in the Trump rally. I think this is reversing now, and emerging markets catch a break. I bought just before/after it broke out at an average cost of IDR 403.
How can I lose money buying property at 11X rental earnings in a country with a growing population and 5% real GDP growth?
- Indonesian political risk and corrpution. Its a fledgling democracy and the new president is from the military.
- Jakarta and Surabaya malls have an occupancy rate of around 75%. All except one of Pakuwon Jati's malls has occupancy rates in the 90's (slide 6), probably because they are big and new.
- Indonesia is a twin deficit country, the currency constantly depreciates. Except when commodity prices are high. Too much of my portfolio is based on commodities.
- Family controlled companies don't have to act in the best interest of shareholder, and Asian ones don't even have to pretend to. So far Pakuwon Jati has been OK - they've been growing the company while paying a small 2% trailing dividend. They said dividends will be "much larger" this year. The founder's age is a risk, what happens when control is transferred to the rest of the family?
- In the short term (weeks or months), a US market crash (Mag7 bubble bursting, with VIX in the 30's) could drag down the rest of the world's stock markets.
Its 4% of my portfolio, which I'm comfortable with, given the above risks. Might go up to 5% if I get a chance.
- Property sales are recognised when the property is transferred. Not by percentage of completion. Makes it more lumpy.
- GIC held a stake until 2015.
