Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Gotten shorter

Market up for the past 5 nights, I added shorts, mostly in the last 2 days: interest rate sensitive sector, cyclicals, Europe and other countries which have lower growth than the US, and a few others:

My short trades (30%) are bigger than my long trades (10%) because:
  • The trading shorts also offset the fundamental longs (around 45%).
  • Narrow market breadth: even as indices risen, most stocks are falling.  Easier to find stuff to short.
  • Market up for past 5 days.
Short term, I am near my max position size for most of the shorts.

My aims now:
  • Keep shorting stuff thats going down on bounces.  Don't overthink it.  Preference for stuff that can still keep falling when economic growth, inflation and interest rates go down.
  • Review all the individual fundamental picks, do I want to hold them into a bear market?
  • Buy stuff thats still going up on dips.  Especially big tech.  Might get a 2001 blowoff top - this time its probably NVDIA which is sucking cash out of the rest of the ecosystem for their chiiiipsss....

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