Finished buying the dip

Finished buying the dip in the last 2 nights.

Last night I was really lucky to buy 3% gold stocks before market open, just before Bessent's news that he would buy 30 year bonds.  I bought because it was in the middle of Hedgeye's risk range- which is about the best opportunity you can get in a strong trend, the gold price was inching up, and FOMO:

Its overbought now, after the good news.  I should probably sell some, but its been so hard building a position that I wont.

Now 100% invested.  No cash.  No shorts.

I'm now a pig.  This bull market could last 1 or 2 quarters.  Lets see how it goes.

Bought the dip

Bought a little last night (too early), and a lot tonight:

• Big tech, Gold, commodities, high-beta tech, software, market breadth broadening.
• Sold a little of my healthcare stock.  It seems to go up when everything else goers down.

Am now 6-7% cash.

See if I get a chance to buy more tomorrow.

Still buying. Market overbought now.

I've been buying last week:

• Finally got a chance to buy some gold on Thursday night
• Bought some more ETFs expecting market breadth to expand
• Covered high-beta tech shorts.

The market is overbought right now, so used the chance to sell some trades that weren't working last night.  Try buying different things when the market corrects.  Theres a lot I could buy: more market breadth, commodities, software, high beta tech or EMs.  And my favourite: Gold.  Wait for dips to buy.  Probably wait 2-5 trading days.

Some of my fundamental picks shot up last week: the Japanese stocks and a South American bank.  Up 10-20%.

I remind myself not to get carried away with buying.  Bull market probably lasts 1-2 quarters.  Everything I buy now is a trade.

Its a Bull market!

Now betting on a bull market, I am buying whatever dips or is flat:

Gold looks like its bottomed.  After a 6 month correction.  I want to buy more miners or royalties but haven't had the chance.  The risks are that inflation expectations may rise next months (ie: less chance or rates dropping).  And gold now trades as a risk-on asset so is affected by the war.

Don't get carried away, the bull probably ends within 6 months.  And $100 oil could end everything sooner.

Quick Update

Positions still unchanged, except for "Shorts" and "Trades":

Been a good month:

• My two Japan SAAS stocks are up 30-50% since mid June.
• My LATAM stocks are up in the past 2 months

• Gas pipelines flat
• And my short term trades are working.  Made money shorting EWY and other tech stuff, covered most of it on the way down.  Cumulating in Situational Awareness being taken out by Citadel.

• Also made money buying interest rate sensitive plays, trading in and out.  

So far we've see a bifurcated market, AI and high-beta tech down, (non-AI) software and low-beta up.  The blast wind from the blowup.  Does it continue?  Might depend on if Citadel is unloading their new bargain basement AI stonks.

Once the bodies are carted out, we should go back to our regular programming.  Either:

• A bull market from a few months of rising US growth.
• Or a downward chop from the war.

I don't know what happens.  Just trade whats working till it doesn't.  And remember that cash is a position.

Quick Update. Float like a butterfly.

I am holding a lot of cash, and doing short term trades:

Everything depends on oil (or product) prices, which depends on whatever Trump does next.  I have no advantage in a flip-flop market, I make big money from Trends.  But not now.  No need for me to keep playing a losing game.

My base case is that both sides keep fighting, until one is worn down.  The US does not have any good options left, and the IRGC can be strangled by blockades.  The war could continue for 2 weeks or 2 months.  If it goes on, and real destruction starts to be priced in, Dubai stocks may be worth a look.  Not buying oil because of the flip-flop risk.

Notes:

• Sold some interest rate sensitive stocks and healthcare as they rose.  Taking profits quickly (several days to 2 weeks) in an uncertain market leave me less exposed when the trend changes.
• Bought Copper ETF and some other stocks.
• Sold bonds at a small loss, bond yields are higher.  But the above interest rate sensetive stocks are still working, I don't know why,
• Shorted high beta tech. 
• Crypto *might* be making a comeback.
• Avoided the tech crash on Thurs.
• Thurs was one of my best days from paper gains on my Gas Pipelines, as gas breaks out.

Both my longs and my shorts are working. Small trades.  Don't expect any trend to last.

Neither Here nor There

 Two scenarios for the medium term:

• Rising real GDP growth from Sept onwards, combined with stimulus for the mid-terms propels the market higher.  I want to be 100% long a rising market.  Buy the dips now, don't sell.  Being a pig made me a lot of money in 2024 and 2025.

• Rising crude or product prices derail real growth and hit market confidence.  We go back to our on-again off-again war.   Market chops, slightly downwards.  In this sort of market I want to cut exposure, both long and short.  No FOMO, have a comfortable cash cushion, let the world pass me by.  Only take trades heavily in my favour.  Swing trades, take some profit after a few days.  Any profit is a good profit.  Float like a butterfly.

I don't know which scenario happens.  Maybe some messy combination of both.

I have cut back on my trades and shorts, both cutting losses and taking profit.   Added a LATAM bank:

Lets see how it goes.

Another podcast abt the war

A different PoV from Anas Alhajji on Macrovoices.  He expects product (esp diesel) prices to rise, not crude:

• Oil market knows the war will drag on, even after the mid terms. 
• Iranian regime fractured: IRGC hardliners benefited greatly from sanctions.  These "rebel" factions benefit from Hormuz tolls.  Irans oil production increased substantially - in Feb 2026 Iran oil exports were highest since 2017. Hardliners benefit from prestige, control and money.  If everything goes back to normal, they lose everything.  They attacked ships and other countries to derail the negotiations.  The negotiating team does want to bring about a peace deal.
• Anas is not bullish on crude:
• During the crisis China reduced imports by 6m bpd, reducing price from 90s to 70s.  They did not draw down their inventory significantly: only 50m bbls.  Of the 6m:
• 800k-1m bpd was for filling their onshore inventory.  
• 1.5m for filling floating storage.  
• Banned exports of refined product (1m bpd decline in crude).
• A little declining consumption from declining growth.
• Significant domestic oil production increase.  
• Market was balanced at $75-85.
• So far decline in crude inventory levels has been is US & Japan SPRs, not commercial inventories.  This does not affect prices. 
• Only risk for a short term crude oil spike is Saudi/Houthi attacks - they had agreement where Saudi supported economy of Sanaa, while Houthis stopped attaching the Saudios.  It held well, but was broken.  May see attacks on ships in red sea (6m bbl/day - mostly Russian/Saudi oil).  4m bbls per day of Saudi crude at risk.   Would push prices way above $100.  Only for a short time as the Saudi/US response would be hard.  But a disruption is unlikely, they are likely to go back an agreement.
• US shale (light sweet) can produce gasoline but not diesel.
• SPR can only be refilled max 400k barrels a day.  Will not raise prices signifigantly.  China will not refill above $70.  SPR refilling creates a floor, but does not increase it.
• US refining sector running at 96-97% capacity, even if product demand recovers, they cannot take more crude inputs.
• Anas believes the US originally wanted Hormuz to be closed as a message to China:
• US wants "Energy Domination", both Trump and Biden want the US to supply energy to the world to make them dependent.  
• 75% of Helium comes from Qatar, that plant was destroyed in the beginning of the war, Bessent declared last month that semicon industry is returning to the US.  TW investment in Arizona, 150 bn, mis more than the revenues of Kuwait & Iraq for a year.  Asian energy prices rose more than US or Brent.  Giving their AI production problems.
• Straits closure hurts Asia/China more than the US.
• China weathered the storm well, but they cannot do it long term (eg: 1 more year).  China wants to help the US get out of the mess.
• But did not go according to US plan.  Bad execution.  Later when the US wanted the straits open, they cannot make the Iranians factions open it!  US does not have a problem with the Iranian negotiators.  Will it turn into a full scale conflict?  He believes it will not be a full scale war: they will attack the IRGC elements who attach the ships, not the regime, watch where the weapons and drones are coming from, and attack to weaken them substantially.  So the negotiations can continue.
• No one wants Iran to collapse, which would be a disaster (civil war, refugees).  Turkey wary of Kurds, Pakistan of Baloch.  
• Refined product is a problem, not crude:
• 3 refineries in Gulf (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi).  All their export of diesel and jet fuel is shut down.
• Trump released medium/sour crude from SPR for Asian refiners to produce diesel.
• Russian refining capacity lost to Ukranian drones (with US support).
• The US is now exporting products to countries they have never exported before.
• Most likely, will get rising diesel/gasoline prices, not crude.

Iran War and Consequences

Interesting interview with Michael Every on the Iran war and consequences: Kaos Theory episode 13

Hard to summarise the nuance, but the main points are:

• Base case is for middling peace till the mid-terms, war resumes afterwards.  But this could be disrupted anytime by a rogue IRGC commander with a few manpads.
• Saudis and regional countries are re-arming drones and interceptors, have a deal with Ukraine.
• Geopolitically, it would be a big loss for the US to just walk away from the middle east.  Harder to TACO.
• A realistic US victory means 1) Stop Iran from using uranium, they know where it is, monitor it and drop a tactical nuke if anyone goes near it 2) Keep the straits of Hormuz open 3) Bypass the straits, Saudis and UAE building alternative pipelines. 4) Stop Iran from rebuilding military capability by blockading them and cutting off belt-and-road links (eg: bridge bombing).
• No Iran regime change.  If it happens, its a lot later, after the above "victory" conditions and Iran gets choked a for few years.
• Israel is exhausted from fighting.  But the IRGC is an existential threat, they won't sleep at night until its gone.  Same with Hezbollah, Israel cannot accept peace with them.  Israeli election in Oct, Netanyahu is unpopular.  There is zero intersection between what the Israelis, US and IRGC need for a peace deal.
• Republicans win the Senate in mid terms, the House is a toss up.  If Trump doesn't win, he goes back to issuing Executive Orders on statecraft and foreign policy.  For the 2028 elections, one faction of the Republicans (Vance) and all the Democrats are isolationists.
• In the future, the US could create its own oil trading block: NAFTA + South America + UAE + a few more oil producers + Japan & South Korea (refiners).  Everyone else gets left out to die in the cold (Europe).

The key to everything is US disinflationary growth.

Covered most of my shorts

Covered most of my shorts at a small profit.  The market was overbought 2 days ago when news of the war hit, its not anymore.

I doubt the war will last, Trump cannot afford high oil prices into the mid terms. Cut my shorts on the dip,  as Trumpian news changes too fast.  

Cut most of my crypto and EM shorts, and all of my commodity shorts (mostly precious/industrial metals), and all the Mag7 shorts.

Will post my holdings tmr.

Update Monday 13 July before market open: My current holdings:

Cash includes cash from short positions.

Quick update. Short as hell.

 I am very short.  80% invested, 20% cash (excluding cash from shorts) and 41% short.

Green rows have new trades, black rows are unchanged:

• Sold the higher beta LATAM stock
• Added a few more longs, mostly rate sensitive.
• Shorted moar crypto.  And Mag 7.  And EMs.

We are in a short squeeze, which is starting to hurt, but I think its still part of a (probably) brief correction.  We'll see in the next 2 weeks - either my shorts make a lot of money, or I cut my losses.

Quick Update

 Made a few trades since the last update:

• Shorted some Mag7 stocks.  Unfortunately I shorted when they were oversold a few days ago, so the position has bounced into the red.  The addition of Marvell and SpaceX to the S&P500 and Nasdaq should squeeze out Mag 7 and result in selling pressure.
• Used last nights rebound to reload my MSTR short.
• Also increased positions in 'interest rate sensitive stocks' as they corrected a little yesterday.
• High-beta tech (longs) got kicked out.

If the market goes up tonight I may increase my Mag 7 shorts.

Only the last 3 rows here have changed:

After end-of-quarter window dressing tonight, I am bearish on the market for the next few weeks.

Market correction

 The correction is probably a buying opportunity:

• Have cut the EM shorts that were based on rising oil.
• I cut my Memory stocks before the correction, but only by 10%.  Bought it back on the first night of the correction.  Look to increase my memory holdings slightly.    I have to learn to trade around it cause its so volatile.  Daily 10% drops are normal.  And one day the bubble pops - probably not today.
• Sold off copper miners.  Another sector rolling over.
• Bought some lower beta stuff in other sectors.  Anything is lower beta then Memory stonks.
• Covered some crypto shorts last night, hope to reload.

I'm holding 30% net cash, with my fundamental plays (56%), and for short term trades, being long and short really high beta stuff like memory and crypto.

In the next few days/weeks I'd like to buy more Memory, plus lower beta stuff (as trades), and reshort crypto and EMs (the new short targets seem to be mostly oil exporters).  Longer term I'd like to buy gold royalties/miners, but no signal for this yet.

I've be too fast to buy into these past few corrections.  Need to earn to wait - when the market has a potential economic growth slowdown ahead, and VIX/VIXN are in the 20s or 30s, then wait 3 or 4 days into a correction for the market to fall before covering shorts and buying new longs.

Cut exposure

Drastically cut my trading exposure last night.  This week I'd been selling individual holdings as they went bearish, last night I cut a lot:

Why?

• Two spikes in VIX over the past 4 trading days:

VIX is still low compared to previous corrections.  But the spikes are too fast....intraday.

• Sector by sector turning bearish.  Last month Crypto.  Last week high beta tech and oil.  Last night mag7.
• *Possible* growth deceleration in July. 

Quick Update

Shot my load too early.  Was 100% invested Wednesday night, Thursday recovered, Friday the market got hammered:

High beta tech got hammered more:

Past Moves:

• I bought a little more midnight (mid-day) Friday, as my portfolio was down 2%.  It was down another 2% by close.  Now 105% long, 2% cash, 7% short.
• Covered my rate sensitive shorts on Friday.
• Hedgeye's ten year yield's trading risk range had 4 consecutive lower highs on Friday (based on Thursday's closing data).  

• After that (Friday), TLT did not fall when good employment data was released.  If high employment does not make interest rates go up, what will?  Covered my TLT short  and some other rate sensitive stuff.  We may be moving closer to buying gold.

Future Moves:

• Still think its a bull market.  Was going up to fast, everyone on the same side of the boat with too much leverage.  Needed a correction, someone got blown up.  The correction could go on for a few more days.  Or it could be a distant memory by middle of next week.

• But as we go out 3-6 weeks, I want to get more cautious.  Possible stagflation.

• Will probably cover my remaining shorts (EMs) on Monday, as they are down so much and the positions are too small to trim. Reshort on post-correction bounce.  I'll keep my MSTR short since its still sizeable and seems to be uncorrelated with the market, maybe add a little.

Quick Update

Last night (Wed night) was the first day of a correction:

• Bought some space related ETFs on market open.  They are correcting - could be because of the New Glen explosion, could be a sell-the-news event for SpaceX IPO (in which case I'll lose money).  But its a bull market, buy stuff thats going up till it stops.
• Also bought some other low quality techy/AI adjacent stuff.  Shit flies in a Quad 2 bull market.
• Bought a little IWM.
• MSTR is dropping like a rock, regardless of wether the market is up or down.  2 days ago they sold bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends.  I have a good position.  Its falling so fast you can't even short it anymore (SEC uptick rule).  Good chance that bitcoin only recovers after Saylor is carried out in a body bag.
• Sold Google on a small bounce at open.  Small loss.  Its oversold, but Hedgeye risk range has 5 consecutive lower highs.  I don't know why its selling off on news of the Berkshire Hathaway's stake...stock down on good news --> get out.

My IWM and space-crap buying was a bit early, its down this morning.  I'm at 8-9% cash.  Want to buy base metals (incl. copper miners) and small caps, probably in the next 1-2 nights.  Enjoy the bull while it lasts.   "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

Bought Nice Information Services (030190 KS)

Bought a 5% position in Bought Nice Information Services (030190 KS), a credit bureau in Korea.  See the Asian Century Stocks writeup (paid).  Its sells mostly consumer credit scores, and is part of an oligopoly, with past 6% CAGR, trading at single digit PE.  It pays a 4% dividend, or half its profits.  The risks are: Korea is already heavily indebted, the corporate structure, and the stock is illiquid (buying 50 shares can move the price 1%).

Sold Nam Cheong

A Malysian OSV provider that went bankrupt 3 times.  I bought some in July 2024 and again in July 2025.

Name Cheong is a cyclical, not a long term compounder.  It has no moat.  

Trying to estimate their long term operating profit:

I get RM 30c per year, at the current utilisation rate is 58%. 

Increase utilisation to 70% and I get 50-55c per year.  At a maximum possible 85%, I get 80c.

The above does not take into account increased rates, which can push it up more.

The company should do well as the OSV cycle keeps improving.  We may be halfway through - we are nowhere near a the top of a bubble like 2008.  Although the easy money has been made, there's still some meat on the bone.  Main reason for selling is to buy something else.

Its up 3 times since I bought from my average price.  Been a good ride.

Quick Update

Think a correction may have started Friday night.  In a bull market, it probably only lasts 2-3 days.  I'm at 15% net cash now, look to buy Monday and Tues.   15% cash is too much in a bull market.

• Sold some Mag7 as they went up last night.  Before dropping into last night's close.
• Bought a few more "high beta tech" ETFs as they corrected Friday midnight.  Junky stuff really, but they can fly in a high growth and/or inflation environment.  
• Memory would be included in "high beta tech" above.  Already got a full position.
• Wanted to sell oil (Var Energi) but woke up 10 mins after the Oslo stock exchange closed.
• MSTR rose quite a bit Fri, now got a full short position.
• Long term bonds are overbought, re-shorted TLT.  They should bounce (down) now, but keep this on a short leash see if/when high rate expectations begin to falter. 
• Colombia has elections (tonight) Sunday: binary event, right or left.  One of my LATAM positions (2%) is a bet on this: it either flies or drops like a rock.

I would like to separate my trading and non-trading portfolios to measure performance separately, but in Interactive Brokers it affects the margin limits.  And I may want margin in years to come.

Separately I have:

• Created a LLM wiki knowledge base to hold topics from investment related articles.  Mostly fundamental related stuff.  Its to keep track of articles/topics over the years.  May write about it after I've used it a few months.  AI makes it possible to specify things in English that could not be done before.
• Been plotting Hedgeye's daily risk ranges onto charts, to be able to see trends and changes in trends easier.  Claude code makes scripting 10X faster.

Quick Update

 Short term trades:

• Portfolio up bigly on Tuesday, down medium last night.
• Some of my shorts did not work out, cut loss.
• Sold my crypto stonk at a small loss 2 nights ago.  Most of crypto is falling, BTC is dropping like a rock despite tech going up.  Last night shorted my favourite crypto PoS, MSTR.  Its falling so fast its hard to build a decent position. 
• Memory up 15% in Tues night.  I decided to keep it.  Its a bubble, but we don't know wether is 2001 or 1999.  The big question is when Korea/China increases capacity, or HBM demand from Mag7 fades.
• Small position in QTUM also up bigly.
• Added to some Mag7 positions, they are down over the past 2 days while everything else is up.
• Reshorting TLT.  Rising growth and inflation leads to higher rates.

Medium term:

• Looking for signs to buy gold, when rising rate expectations peak.  No sign of this yet.
• Cut my position in Var Energi from 4% to 2%, as WTI/Brent start to break Hedgeye's trend.  The market is pricing in an Iran resolution. 

Long term, conflicting views:

• US is in a growth phase now (mid-terms, tax stimulus, data centre buildout), but there's a chance it turns to stagflation in the next few months.
• Even if we get the growth, end 2026 is probably the peak.  2027 is a bear.