Short term trades:
- Portfolio up bigly on Tuesday, down medium last night.
- Some of my shorts did not work out, cut loss.
- Sold my crypto stonk at a small loss 2 nights ago. Most of crypto is falling, BTC is dropping like a rock despite tech going up. Last night shorted my favourite crypto PoS, MSTR. Its falling so fast its hard to build a decent position.
- Memory up 15% in Tues night. I decided to keep it. Its a bubble, but we don't know wether is 2001 or 1999. The big question is when Korea/China increases capacity, or HBM demand from Mag7 fades.
- Small position in QTUM also up bigly.
- Added to some Mag7 positions, they are down over the past 2 days while everything else is up.
- Reshorting TLT. Rising growth and inflation leads to higher rates.
Medium term:
- Looking for signs to buy gold, when rising rate expectations peak. No sign of this yet.
- Cut my position in Var Energi from 4% to 2%, as WTI/Brent start to break Hedgeye's trend. The market is pricing in an Iran resolution.
Long term, conflicting views:
- US is in a growth phase now (mid-terms, tax stimulus, data centre buildout), but there's a chance it turns to stagflation in the next few months.
- Even if we get the growth, end 2026 is probably the peak. 2027 is a bear.
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