CTOS Digital is a Malaysian Credit Bureau, part of an oligopoly selling credit reports. They had a 71% market share in Consumer reports. I got the idea from the Asian Century Stocks Substack (1) (2).
They had a cyber security incident recently, and their services have been suspended until further notice. Their chart is a falling knife:
I bought some on Monday and some today, average price 38.3c. Its a 4% position.
This is a profitable company with recurring revenue, a sustainable competitive advantage, and a gross margin in the 60s. Some notes:
- Their tax rate will rise in 2027 as a tax exception expires.
- Malaysia is implementing Bank Negara's Open Finance Network next year. This will allow 6 months of anyones bank statements to be downloaded by another bank, with the consumer's consent. However a bank statement only gives payment details, it does not say if payment was full or on time. I don't think this is a thread to CTOS. But it would be better if CTOS had access to these statements as well - currently it seems like they don't - only banks can request the statements.
- At current price, I get a forward PE of 10 to 11. Excluding the suspension.
Its not part of EWM. Its a mid-cap, part of a few Malaysian indexes, so stock price might still be affected by an overall market correction.
The big unknown is how much their longer term market share and revenue is affected by the suspension.

No comments:
Post a Comment