Last Night:
Losses from gold (39K), Silver (12K), Cooper (9K), Platinum & Palladium (7K),.
What happened?
- Silver got hammered by some guy in China building a massive short position. If his short position is not hedged, he'll have to cover in a few weeks.
- Gold fell in sympathy
- Crypto and Tech fell. For tech, both Mag 7 (cause they are spending too much on AI), and traditional SAAS companies (cause they're going to get disrupted by AI).
I don't know if all these falls are the start of a new selldown, as volatility begets volatility, and correlations go to one. I'm posting this to remind myself what 30-40 one-month forward IV feels like. Really hope my next blog post has a different title.
My best guess is that gold will recover in a few months. GVZ has peaked and is now falling, but needs to hit the low 20s:
Retail interest is still strong. For now, I'll hold it and wait for the bull to continue.
Silver I think will also bounce, but is still to volatile. For now, I'll hold it and look to sell above $100.
I don't know if tech and crypto will recover. I'd like to put some tech shorts on during a bounce. And reload my crypto shorts (MSTR and BMNR).
In the meltdown this morning, I bought 2 Japanese companies (paid link). They are a growing SAAS duopoly, with a 20% market share together and 20-30% growth rates, and EV/Sales in the low single digits.
This is a fundamental bet, not macro. Betting they won;t be disrupted by AI, and they can keep growing as the majority of additional revenue adds to their profits.
The meltdown can always continue tomorrow.
