I've been balls-to-the-wall bullish since April 2025. Averaging 120 to 130% invested. Now I've cut my exposure and added some shorts. Now I'm 98% (gross) invested, plus 14% short.
Sold or reduced:
- Copper, palladium following Hedgeye Trade and Trend
- A Latam bank
- Shorted tech and crypto, again following Hedgeye Trade and Trend
- Sold 1/4 of my Malaysia Smelting Corp shares. Tin made all time highs in Jan, with MSC up around 40% from where I bought it. I think tin continues up this year, but probably falls next year with slowing economic growth. So I still have a while to sell, but sell a little now in case I am wrong.
- Sold Hartalega (Malaysian rubber glove company) at a 66% loss. I'm not sure if I timed the cycle wrongly, or there is something wrong with the company, or China is destroying the glove market. There was no clear signal to say that I was wrong at cut losses, just a slow drip, drip, drip of bad news.
Still golding a large chunk of gold and precious metals. Gut feeling that we are not at the end of the gold cycle, but no numbers to back it up.
The US market is rotating away from tech and into Industrials and some cyclicals.
I am still bullish for 2026, but think 2027 has slower growth. The bear may start end of this year.
My positions. Short term trades are purple. Cyclical commodities to sell as they go higher are Green:
The portfolio is doing OK, beating SPY but tracking gold. With all the volatility that entails:
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