Started to sell some gold

Gold is up 10% in the past week and 33% in the past month.

Crazy, but not a record.  I'm selling 1/3rd of Equinox.  Its the highest beta gold stock I own, and some of its upside has been removed by recent divestments.

Honestly, I have no idea when to sell.  Today could be gold's top, or it can go to 6000, 7000, or 10000.

There is no quantitive way to measure that gold is "too expensive" or "over owned".

Gold has no fundamentals. There is no "high price" where demand gets substituted or destroyed.

It is going up despite low inflation.

It has gone parabolic, and can go more parabolic. In the last month of the 70-80's bull market, it rose 66% in a month.

COT data tells you that its over owned, and has been over owned forever. GVZ has surpassing its previous peak before the correction in Oct - a mere 10% two-month correction. Even if you sold beforehand, you probably didn't get back in.

‌What can make it keep going up?

• Increased liquidity - especially China and Japan. People buy gold when their currencies are shit.
• CBs holding currencies down to offset their trade surplus wit the US by buying a neutral reserve currency instead of USTs.
• War or threat of war.

What can make it go down?

• Japan stops spraying liquidity (think its from BOJ issuing shorter term bonds)
• USD drops enough so no more trade defecit. Asian CBs no longer need to intervene in their currency markets.
• US successfully delevers, so USTs look more attractive.
• World peace. Old-Man-Xi dies (will happen) and his successor says he won't invade Taiwan (dunno). Iran regime overthrown (likely). Putin leave Ukraine (no sign yet).

Best I can do is look for signs of technical weakness or over-exuberance.  Like:

• Gold bugs telling people to "Have Fun Staying Poor".
• Gold doesn't rise on good news (good news for gold, ie: bad news).
• The price rise gets stupidly parabolic (like in the 70s). Or GVZ makes all time highs.

‌My gut feeling is that we still have some way to go. This is not yet like Crypto in 2021. But in a bull market, your gut feelings are probably wrong.

‌At some point, I have to say that "this is getting ridiculous", slowly sell my gold holdings, and maybe keep a small position just to trade. The trouble is, there no numbers to tell you where that point is.