Start Selling My Silver

I bought Silver (SLV) eight months ago as a trade from Hedgeye.  Its up 3 times since then.  It was 2% of my portfolio, now its 5%.

When something goes parabolic theres no way to know when it ends.  You'll always miss the top.  Even a local top.  Hedgeye risk manages by frequent trading, but I don't like trading so I need another way.  Don't want to overstay my welcome and become like the sad crypto bros of 2025.

Fundamentally, for commodities, high prices cure high prices.  Demand destruction for silver in solar panels begins around  $100 to $135.  But supply incentives are harder to guess, as silver is a by-product of other metal mining:

Gold (10-15% of silver supply) has hit its incentive price.  Zinc (30-40%) is hitting it now.  Copper is nowhere near.  And of course silver mines (25-28% of silver supply) are incentivised.  So we have 65-83% of silver supply being incentivised.  The supply is not immediate - probably takes 9-15 years for a new mine to open.  But existing mines can increase output.

At $109 silver (tonight), we are at-or-near prices where demand replacement occurs, and at current silver/gold/zinc prices the majority of the worlds silver production is incentivised to produce more.   Neither will happen overnight, but it will happen.  I'm comfortable slowly trimming my silver position.  Sold a quarter of my holdings (pre-market), and will sell more if if rises.  It can still keep going higher.

Trader Ferg wrote a excellent piece about handling parabolic price rises.  Don't get too greedy.  Inner peace.

When would I sell my gold companies?  I don't know.  Gold is a currency, not a commodity, so has no fundamental price targets.