Correction
I was caught by surprise, but still think this is a short term correction. The market went up too far and some FOMO has to be shaken out. It might be over on Monday, or may last 2 weeks. Everything still points to the bull continuing: VIX at 20, the economic outlook for the next 6 months, and Trump needing to pump after that.
I am 112% invested. Bought a little ETH and Q's on Friday. Would like to load up on more ETH.
Other Risks
Trump's reversal on Russia and the passing of the 'Russia Bill' - giving him authority to levy a 500% tariff on countries that import Russian oil after 8th Aug - are good for oil stocks, but bad for India, China and (maybe) Brazil. It makes it less likely for a trade deal to be reached, more likely for the world to spilt into different trading blocks.
- Russia produces ~9m bpd, out of approximately 105m bpd used worldwide.
- Trump still wants to keep the oil price down, and the Saudi's will help. We may see oil up to $100, but I don't see it getting any higher.
- A 50% tariff decreases the chance of a US-China trade deal.
- Non-Aligned countries, like India/Brazil have more incentive to go over to China's side.
- India hit. How much of their recent hot GDP growth has been from cheap Russian energy?
- Increases the change of an Iran deal. Iran is currently not a threat, even to Israel. Israelis gotta finish their war quickly. Short term peace in the ME. Not lasting peace, while the Iranian regime is still around.
- If countries don't buy Russian oil/gas, what happens to it? Either the pipe/ship it all to countries that don't care (like China), or stop production.
- And if so, Russia runs our of money. What can they sell? Gold down?
- Buyers buy from the US instead. And the whole world wants US LNG ro reduce their bilateral trade deficits. Longer tanker or LNG Carrier routes.
- What if the US navy starts enforcement against 'dark fleet' ships carrying Russian oil/gas.
My oil stocks should do well. I have no India exposure, but some China and Brazil.
