Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Quick Update

My portfolio was up a couple of percent for the Trump win.  Not bigly.  Gas pipelines made 5-year highs, but gold and energy were down.


Trades

Hedgeye's trend for Industrial metals have broke down: Platinum (last week), copper (last night), and silver (weak but still holding).  Sold the first two, reduced the third.  I don't know why - I expected industrial metals would react positively to a Trump win.  But they were trading positions so no need to think about it.

Still got a small 1/2 percent bitcoin position remaining after selling some last night (doh!).  Its broken out, bullish, but overbought.  My gut feeling is to wait for 100K then sell the news.

Investments

Still keeping my tin (MSC:KLSE), as its an investment position - too illiquid to trade in and out.  Think I need to wait for the semiconductor market to improve, half of tin is used for solder.  No sign of this now.

Sandstorm Gold was down 9% on disappointing earnings plus a falling gold price.  I bought another 2%.  This might be a risk, since Hedgeye trends recently broke down for some gold related sectors.  We *may* be entering a period of accelerating growth, which is bad for gold.  And gold's uptrend was getting long in the tooth.

Hartalega (Malaysian glove manufacturer) was also up after the US election, probably because of USD strength.  And tariffs.  I expect the USD to fall longer term, but its not happening now.

Palm oil up a lot since I bought, need to see if theres any supply response.  Hard to get data.  Maybe March next year.

I sold Woodside, small loss (including dividends).  US natural gas export capacity will no longer be hindered by "green policies".


Question's I'm Thinking

*If* we are entering a period of accelerating growth, do I sell my gold (miners/royalties)?  I'm still bullish gold long term.

And in that time, if industrial metals are not working (for whatever reason), what do I buy?  With rising growth, shit flies.  Do I want to trade shit?

US daylight savings makes it harder for me to trade.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

is hedge eye some random technical box? seems you just dismiss it when wrong and attribute it when right, with some retrospective narrative. repeat.