Sold Some Gold

Sold a little gold, around 4%.  It had run up for months before the election, but dropped afterwards, Now got an 6% position.

The reasons, from short term to long term:

• Hedgeye's trend is weakening, though still bullish.  And they are projecting a few months of increasing growth in the next six months, bad for gold.
• Gold ran up for months before the election.  Mostly no one noticed, but by the end mainstream media was reporting on it.
• I do not know if Trump wants a weaker dollar.  He needs it if manufacturing is to come back to America.  But he also says he wants the USD to be a reserve currency.  And growing oil production is positive for the USD.  Tariffs may also increase the value if the USD (lowering the currencies of the countries they are aimed at).  
• The new administration is looking to grow its way out of debt.  Rather than just inflate its way out.

My gut says we need a lower USD to fix the persistent trade deficit.  But I don't know.

I still think theres inflation.  Government debt is too big, and most of government spending is mandatory (required by law).  But we are looking at less inflation, more growth, with maybe a tiny bit of austerity.  The train wont stop, but it can slow down. Maybe 3% inflation, 3 percent real growth.

I also want to deleverage a bit, because we don't know what can happen.  They new administration may:

• Make a security deal with Saudi Arabia, for cheaper oil
• Get allies to pay for US troops, narrowing the budget deficit.  Or make them buy long term bonds to pay for it.
• Tie tariffs to foreign policy - you get to sell more into the US market if you support the US politically and militarily, and if you put tariffs against other countries that don't.
• Do a shock 10% devaluation of the USD.  Either unilaterally, or another plaza accord.

The rules have changed.  Someone may be about to kick over the chess board we've all been playing on since the 1940's.

Update 25-Now: I sold 6% my gold, 3 or 4% remaining