Friday, September 23, 2022

Sold Netlink Trust

 Sold my remaining shares in Netlink Trust on Friday.  Because:

  • Long term (eg: 5 years out) it won't do well in an inflationary environment.  Their rates are fixed by the government, with no inflation component.  I can imagine in a few years, a Mc Happy meal could cost ten bucks, but NLT's revenue will still be the same.
  • There's a regulatory review in January.  In the previous one, they reduced prices.  Its a big binary event which we can't prepare for.  I don't think a price reduction is priced in.  And theres no upside cause they're not gonna raise prices.  
  • I've always thought of it as a bond proxy, and wanted to hold it through the crash until I get something to buy.  But in early 2020 it was down 20% (vs the S&P's 33%).  No point holding now for a few months to get a 2.5% (semi-annual) dividend, while risking 20%. 
I had no idea what Friday night's market action would be when I sold it.

Still think we are in a bear market and a recession has started.  Looking to buy Singapore banks in the depths of the recession.  But first I gotta survive the bear market.

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