Sold my remaining shares in Netlink Trust on Friday. Because:
- Long term (eg: 5 years out) it won't do well in an inflationary environment. Their rates are fixed by the government, with no inflation component. I can imagine in a few years, a Mc Happy meal could cost ten bucks, but NLT's revenue will still be the same.
- There's a regulatory review in January. In the previous one, they reduced prices. Its a big binary event which we can't prepare for. I don't think a price reduction is priced in. And theres no upside cause they're not gonna raise prices.
- I've always thought of it as a bond proxy, and wanted to hold it through the crash until I get something to buy. But in early 2020 it was down 20% (vs the S&P's 33%). No point holding now for a few months to get a 2.5% (semi-annual) dividend, while risking 20%.
I had no idea what Friday night's market action would be when I sold it.
Still think we are in a bear market and a recession has started. Looking to buy Singapore banks in the depths of the recession. But first I gotta survive the bear market.
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