I've been caught wrong-footed by Russia's Ukraine invasion:
- I had an 11% position in Russian (and Soviet block) commodity companies. Now down by about 1/3rd. Hard to tell whats priced in. I do not know if the US will really place sanctions on Russian commodities (except for piped gas). Overall, I feel OK about it: when you roll the dice, sometimes you lose.
- Worse, I had sold my oil, looking to buy back in June. Its since gone parabolic.
I've been selling my gold position as it moves up. Now its 5%. Short term, I don't think it goes up much more, the uncertainty over Ukraine has been resolved. In a few months, it may still rise as market expectations of interest rate rises drop.
I still think we get a market correction in June. Hopefully I get a chance to buy oil/commodity producers then.
Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth.
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