Watching & waiting

Still unsure mkt direction. Watching:

• M1. V. Strong trend, but no clear entry point.
• Parkway: same
• Goodpack: same
• Biosensors: same
• PLife Reit: Maybe, but not expected to be a leading stock
• Suntec REIT: Maybe, just at its 25 and 50 MAs.
  
• SC Global: See if it respects 10 month upsloping trendline. Current >.
• UOB KH: Upsloping 10 month trendline sppt (from weekly chart)
  
• Singland: broken H&S
• Thomson medical center. Holding up well, but illiquid.
• Tianjin Zong Pharma: same
• Broadway Indust: is respecting green MA. But v illiquid.
• Breadtalk: same

Mabye:

• Stats chippac
  

CWT

Still in an uptrend, above its MAs. Recently worked off its overbought condition:

Resistance zone at 96 to 99c (previous high, as well as from previous year). Clear after than, till $1.17.

What prevents me taking a position?

• market direction unclear.
• Ideally I would like to see another peak, so a clearer resistance-trendline (triangle) can be drawn. But this stock has not historically behaved like that.... too jumpy, short consolidation periods.
• Possibly buy on clearer market direction and 4-red/1-green.

Note, stock quite illiquid, may have to take half position only.

Ho Bee

Ho Be has held up well:

• Still (mostly) above MAs despite the Jan correction.
• Not badly affected by Friday's anti speculative measurement announcement.

Next resistance is at 1.90 (top of triangle) followed by 2.24 (2007 highs):


What prevents me from taking a position?

• uncertain market direction
• wait for a breakout from triangle (blue line resistance).
• Would be nice to see a lower MACD-H form as it retests 1.59 sppt.... could I buy on support then? Maybe...only if market direction becomes clearer.

Note the pullbacks in previous breakouts (Nov/Dec). Would I count on this again? Probably not. But don't get scared out of the position if I take it.

Straits Asia again

This trade has been quite stressful:

• My broker called me yesterday to suggest that critical support was at 2.03 (200 EMA) several hours before it bounced off from there... She suggested I buy more but I didn't because don't want to risk any more on one trade.
• She said critical resistance is around 2.25, which is the 50MA and the blue trendline (connecting head and shoulder).
  

In hindsight, maybe I should have waited for the trend to be clearer before buying both for:

• the overall market, and
• to break the head/right-shoulder trend line. Or at least a HHHL.
  

Bought Straits Asia

Bought 9 lots Straits Asia Resources @ $2.20.

Seems to be have made a failed H%S pattern, which may be bullish if enough weak holders have been shaken out.
It promptly dropped 3% after I bought it. Today's engulfing candlestick (not shown) looks bad. Since I'm in the dare, nothing to do but see how it works out.

Cut loss level at the previous low, $1.93

Market direction still uncertain

I give abt 50/50 odds that this correction is finished. So I do not know if we are still in the correction, in a sideways market, or in a new uptrend.

We have had ~ 10% correction, I was expecting a 10-40% one.

For the US mkt, IBD has not signaled a follow-thru-day, though they note signs of stocks building bases and the market showing strength. Volume still not conclusive. Once they signal a follow thru day, I put it at a 60-70% chance the correction is over.

If I wait until I'm 100% sure, there'll be no money left on the table.

SMRT

Did not fall during the Jan correction, sppt may be forming at 1.85.

Can't see how I would play it yet, probably wait for some combination of:

• 1.85 to be retested again
• Longer consolidation with narrow MAs. Previously it took 2 months (Aug-Sep) to consolidate. Currently 1.5 months.
  
• Breakout, but it is very hard to read volume on this counter,
  
• Market direction to be clearer.

My hunch is to buy at sppt, since breakout is too difficult on this counter.

SIA Eng

One of the few stocks still above its MAs:

Awaiting:

• TL break, with either high vol or same-day MACD crossover.
• Or alternatively, when support becomes clearer may buy near support. Need clearer mkt direction before doing this.
  

CDL Hospitality trust

Nice setup:

How would I play this?

• Buy at sppt 1.62?
• Wait for triangle breakout?
  

On the negative side, there is a lot of overhead resistance form last year:


A quick look at the fundamentals:

• Yield is 5%, at a 95% payout ratio (@ stock price of $1.69).
• (Before the Aust acquisition) Gearing was low at only 283m (3 yr loan due Jul 2012). Properties are carried on balance sheet at 1.5bn, giving leverage of 19%. MAS regulations (Sect 9.2) allow 60% leverage, but most REITS aim for 40%. Thus they could potentially double their borrowings (and yield).
• (For Aust Acquisition) Expected to be fully funded via debt through debt in A$ and SGD (expected 50/50). Post-acquisition, H-REIT’s debt-to-assets ratio assuming 100% debt financing will be approximately 30.0%. (When are these debts due?)
  
• Have not checked how cyclical this CDL Hospitality's income is. Read somewhere (the Egde) that their hotels still had to pay a minimum rent even if their occupancy was low....won't check this now.

Due to low gearing, has a plausible growth story.

Stocks not going down

Most stocks dropped like rocks in Jan, these are the ones that haven't. Question mark (?) means 'maybe':

• wing tai (?)
• tianjin zhong xin pharm group
• thomson medical centre
• starhub
• smrt
• singpost
• QAF (?)
• pfood
• parkway life REIT
• pacific andes
• osim (?)
• M1
• Hong Leong Asia
• Frasers Centerpoint Trust (?)
• Fortune REIT (?)
• epure (?)
• dairy farm
• CWT
• china fishery (?)
• China essence
• CDL Hospitality trust
• ARA Asset Mgt (?)
• Aqua Terra