Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Airlines: Capacity reduction

Regional airlines cutting capacity but still taking deliveries. Brief summary of the numbers:
  • Asia-Pacific passenger traffic sank 9.7 percent in December, freight volumes down 26 percent.
  • Generally have 10-20% decrease planned in 09, but a lot of deliveries scheduled in 2010.
  • LCCs expanding, full service contracting. See the graphs for Qantas vs Jetstar traffic (part II Traffic Highlights, esp in 4Q). Meanwhile, Air Asia and Air Asia X are expanding madly. Would be interesting to look at AA later: their debt, expansions, sensitivity to fuel prices and how they would perform (survive?) in the event of a crisis (eg: SARS). Their planned provotisation was canned.

Capacity cuts
6.3% in 08, 7-10% in 09.
37 B737s from late 2010 to 2012. Plus 6 A380s from 2011.Mr Idriss: BT Article, p2: 24th Feb 09.
Planning 11% cut in year starting Apr 09 (17 planes).
3 A33-300s due before end Mar, 15 due sometime later.
Artice 19th_Feb
4% in 2H 08,
Planned growth 10% in FY 09/10 (year ends 30th June)

4 A380s in 2009, 65 Boeing 787s - but Qantas can walk away from the first 15 of them.
Air Asia
- none? -
Lots - see graph. 14 in 09, 20+ per year till 2013. AA got lots of debt.