Cut loss #1

Sold Venture. At 9.10 it has cut through all support levels like a knife thru butter. Lost $1920 (incl brokerage).

Expect to cut more losses in future.

Dosent seem to be working....

My recent buys do not seem to be working. Have not got clear signals to cut loss yet, but there is a good chance I will. The US rally seems to be weak, with too many distribution days, and the SGX stocks are down (median -3%, excluding the sub-20c counters) from the day that I bought (31st July) till today (17th Aug).

My maximum cut loss will lose me just under SGD 5.5K, which is nothing to lose sleep over. Excluding pfood (as an investment), I have lost abt 2.6K to date.

In the short term, the SGX is out-of-synch with the US market. Think the SGX is due for a short term 'bounce' soon, and will wait for that to either confirm there is a rally or cut loss on the weaker counters:

• Venture is too near support to cut now. Wait and see. The recent fall could possibly be seen as part of a normal reaction as volume was not too high.
  
• SP-Chem and Boustead have done nothing on weak volume...either way, wait for breakout or breakdown.
• Oceanus is still in an uptrend, despite Friday's fall (low vol). Trailing stop loss at 39.5c
• HI-P still in weak uptrend, and the recent fall can be seen as a normal reaction.

Wait and see....

I should probably learn more abt overbought/undersold indicators to time my purchases better in the short term.

Bought oceanus, venture, HI-P

Bought 10 lost oceanus @43c.

Bought 10 lots HI-P @59, 4 lots @ 59.5. Sell if breaks 48c

Bought 1 lot Venture Mfg @ 10.94. S if breaks 9.33, or consider selling if price/vol pattern changes (want to see up days on high vol, troughs on low vol).


It is scary to buy so much in a fledgling rally that has not yet proven itself. I wonder if my stop-loss levels are too wide and loose. most trades have potential losses of 20%. Mabye I should be more cautious.

Market rallying?

IBD flagged a (potential) rally on Tues 29th July,

Abt 4 of 5 follow through days end up as a bull market, or at least a tradeable rally (like the March to May one). Thurs and Fridays mkt action consisted of the market absorbing bad news, as it fell on lower volume. Have to watch how it responds to the rest of US earnings season. Commodity prices are another big risk. We will not know whether it is a false signal, a tradeable rally, or a new bull market till after it is over. (Examples of follow through days in the 00-02 bear market).

Looking at Venture, HI-P

Venture:

On weekly chart, long term support at 9.33







On daily chart:

• May be seeing a reversal after selling climax in mid-Jan.
  
• Since end-Jun, we start seeing accumulation days (green vertical-dotted lines).
  
• Still below 200MA. Possible support 50MA

HIP:

• May be have reversed after long decline. Now above 200MA.
  
• Key support at 48c.

Bought pfood, SP Chem

Bought 14 lots SP Chem @ 61.5, due to the counter's relative strength in the last two months. See if it manages uptrend.

Sp Chem: Cut loss if fall below 66c:

Bought 11 lots pfood @ 83.5. Long term buy based on China pork industry cycle. Expect it to break downtrend and rise to abt $2 in 6mnths to 2 years. Look to sell when it is in $2 area. No cut loss.

Bought oceanus, boustead

10 lots oceanus @42c, 3 lots Boustead @ $2.35. Bought due to their holding up well during recent bear market. Sell if the stocks break their uptrend or the market turns down.

Oceanus: Quite hard to pick a level of support whose breach would mean the trend has changed. Cut loss below 36.5c, this is also the 50MA. Also cu loss if the pattern of 'moving up on high vol days' is broken.


Boustead: Cut loss below 2.18, as indicating a possible change in trend:





Looking to buy SP Chem.

Still waiting for pfood to breakdown to 83.5c, or break out of 93c