Sold Gazprom

In 2020, Gazprom sold 78% of its gas to Western Europe.  The story was that it would keep growing through Nordstream 2 and increasing exports to China.

Now Nordstream 2 is finished.  And Europe is likely to wean itself off Russian gas in the next few years.  Its a matter of survival.  So Gazprom is no longer a long term dividend story.  

Would I buy at at its current price?  No.  Too unpredictable.  So out it goes.  Sold on the bounce tonight.  Loss of USD 2K, or around 14% (includes dividends received).

I need to think about my other Russian stocks.  Oil, fertiliser and metals are harder than piped gas to place sanctions on. But oil production probably falls long term as the Russians need western technical expertise to keep their equipment running and drill new wells.

Bought back 1% more gold after it corrected yesterday.  Now back at a 6% position, and want to buy more.  With 6 rate hikes priced in (after the start of the war), thats still 5 too many.

Bought CSE Global, Gazprom and a European Bank

Made three trades in the past month.

Bought CSE Global at 46c.  They are a technology company, primarily servicing the oil and gas sector and secondarily, government infrastructure.  Most of their work is project based - they talk about recurring income, but I'm not sure how 'recurring' it really is.  I bought because it was fairly cheap and it 5% yield is probably sustainable.  I can collect it while I wait for oil sentiment to improve.  Key numbers to watch are its order book, and receivables (they had a big problem with them in mid-2017).  Its 2% of my portfolio, due to its lumpy (project based) earnings.

Bought Gazprom at USD 6.91, a Russian gas giant supplying Europe and China.  It was cheap, paying a 7 percent yield (before 10% Russian withholding tax, plus ADR fees).  It should grow dividends to a 50% payout ratio, as their capex winds down and sales increase.  This idea is from Sven Carlin, here.   I'm not analysing it, as its a big company, not transparent, and theres no advantage to me doing so.  Its also 2% of my portfolio, with 2 big risks.  One, geopolitical risk (eg: wars) means gas to Europe may be disrupted, even if its cheap. And two: Putin decides this company should belong to the Russian people, once again.

Bought call options on a European bank.  This bank has gone through several rounds of capital raising and NPL disposal.  Its cheap, trading at half tangible book value, where similar banks from the same country are trading at 70+ percent.  It will probably pay a 5% yield (@ 50% payout ratio).  If it reaches 70% of tangible book by June 2022, my money gets multiplied 2 and a half times.  If not, then zero.  Its a 1% position.

[Edit 8-Nov: Bought more options, expiring in Dec 2021.  Another 1% of my portfolio].

Last month I finished buying Manulife US REIT, its now around 10% of my portfolio.