Monday, September 29, 2025

Portfolio Update. Broken Record.

 Markets up again, stocks up.


Position changes:

  • Sold some South-East Asian stocks.  Moved them into trading the US market.  Buy stuff thats going up.
  • Increased exposure to LATAM.
  • Reduced crypto, and sold Bitcoin.  Shorted Microstrategy.
Might change these soon:
  • Reduce exposure to China and healthcare.  Chin has done well but the next quarter's outlook is negative.  Healthcare keeps getting whipped around by Trump.
  • Increase my Microstrategy short, as it rebounds tonight.
I am just buying stuff thats going up and not overbought.  Its boring, and it doesn't give me much to write about, but I'd rather make money.  The stock market is not a place to look for excitement in life.

My aim is to ride the bull market up, then sit out or short the next bear or correction.  Possibly in 2Q26.  If I can do that, I can quit my day job.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Portfolio Update

Market is up, portfolio is following it, so I'm happy:

  - Gold making new highs: My 2 gold royalty stocks (sandstorm and EMX) have received buyout offers, unfortunately shares not cash.  Will probably hold the acquirers' shares - still wanna be long gold and there's not much left in the mid-cap royalty space to buy.  My other gold stock (Equinox) merged with another company, then hit new highs after relasing better than expected results. I got all these from Mining Stock Monkey's substack (he also has a free youtube channel)

  - LATAM all up.  Holding Chile/Columbian banks, waiting for the next election for the governments to turn to the right.  Nubank (Brazil) released excellent results - but next year's election is a coin toss - hold for now.

  - Small China position (Didi) up.  Fundamentally it can still double from here, especially if it can re-list in HK.  I'll hold it till Hedgeye signals to sell (KBA).  China is always a trade for me.

  - My fat-fingered Ethereum trade up bigly.  Will start selling around 5K, or when Hedgeye's signal weakens.

  - Nam Cheong up.

Whats NOT working:

  - SEA.  Indonesia and Malaysia:

     * Indonesia riots.  Will probably sell my longer term Indonesian holding, country is a poor, corrupt powder keg.  Against this, medium term, it'll go up if the USD falls.

     * Hartalega (gloves).  Hit ten year lows!  Probably Trump.  Malaysia has signed a trade deal with Trump (19% tariffs), but they are courting China.  There is political risk here.  Malaysia is the perfect small, inconsequential country for Trump to smack around a bit to show what happens if you sit on the fence....after he's finished with India and Canada.   Not sure if I should keep this one, its hard to value a cyclical.

    * Delfi results sucked as expected, from high cocoa prices.

  - Oil stocks.  Especially CNQ (Canada).  Probably Trump Tariffs again, combined with the newly-elected gay Canadian government - most Canadian oil is exported/refined in the US.  My Norwegian oil stock is flat.  Hedgeye's trend for oil recently went bullish, dunno if it will stay that way.  I can hold these 2 stocks long term.

  - US Gas Pipelines: Flat, paying dividends,fairly valued not over-valued yet.  Just hold.

  - Turkey (TUR), I fucked up, bought a 2% position too high, fomo.  To cut loss.

  - Probably sell my Seatrium, a 1% position too small to monitor.