- In the last 2 weeks I went short Mag 7. Its only a 5% position. In the green now. I'll write more about it if its successful. Happy abut it so far, though it doesn't provide much of a hedge when the markets puke.
- Raised some cash. Sold Diageo, and a little KMI, WMB, GPW. Now I have 20% cash (excluding the cash from shorts). I might buy back those same companies later.
- Building a shopping list. Of falling knives I can catch if the turmoil goes on.
- Bitcoin looks interesting. As a trade.
- Gold is overbought, so I will sell my weakest gold company (GROY) here. After that, I'll have 9% allocated to gold miners/royalties. And 24% cash. I may buy some small cap gold companies. As the rally extends, smaller companies get swept up in it.
I think the bear market continues for a few months, until the first trade deal is worked out. I think it takes a while, maybe more than the 90 days. Even for reasonable friendly countries like Japan, Poland or India. All sides are negotiating to set their countries up for the next 50 or 100 years - this is like NAFTA, WTO or Bretton Woods. 3 months is not realistic for negotiations covering currencies, trade surpluses and defence. And these negotiations probably break the EU.
And the US was heading into a slowdown anyway, as Biden's endless stimulus was turned off. Meanwhile a lot of US small business reduce operations due to increased working capital requirements from tariffs. Adjustment takes time.
If everything works, I expect a recovery starting 3Q or 4Q, and a boom next year. Trump is trying to serve the medicine now, to make the patient better by Nov 2026.
--- Update 23rd April ---
Used proceeds from the GROY sale to buy more Sandstorm, Equinox and a small cap royalty company. Gold is still strongly trending.
Also bought 1% bitcoin, though its overbought.
Now I'm 19% in cash. Look to cover my shorts on the next dip.
