Thursday, February 6, 2025

Sold SCCO

Long term I am no longer bullish on copper:

  • China housing bust
  • Solar panes and wind farms are now uneconomic.  Switch to natty and nuclear.
  • Hybrid vehicles are growing faster than EVs.  
Sold my 2% Southern Copper corporation this week, as Hedgeye's copper signal went bearish.  Unfortunately it went bullish a few days after.  Short term, shit happens.  Longer term, I'm not interested in a company trading at a 20+ PE (with copper at $4+).

Am now 2.5% cash.  Expecting a dip in the market in Feb/March, looking for things to buy:
  • Platinum: Its trading below its cost of production, like Uranium was years ago.  But not low enough.  Uranium was trading at 1/3rd of its marginal production cost in the early 2020's.  Platinum is around 30-40% below the South African producers' AISC (est. USD 1200 to 1300).
  • EMs (ex China).  I've got some Latam stocks, now looking at SEA.  eg: Pakuwon Jati.  Indonesia and the Philippines are cheap, and Malaysia has high projected GDP growth in the next few quarters.  But there's no rush.  Unlike Latam (upcoming 2025/26 elections), SEA does not have a catalyst.  EMs have underperformed for years, and we are still in the USD-up-EMs-down phase of the Trump rally.



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