Long term I am no longer bullish on copper:
- China housing bust
- Solar panes and wind farms are now uneconomic. Switch to natty and nuclear.
- Hybrid vehicles are growing faster than EVs.
Sold my 2% Southern Copper corporation this week, as Hedgeye's copper signal went bearish. Unfortunately it went bullish a few days after. Short term, shit happens. Longer term, I'm not interested in a company trading at a 20+ PE (with copper at $4+).
Am now 2.5% cash. Expecting a dip in the market in Feb/March, looking for things to buy:
- Platinum: Its trading below its cost of production, like Uranium was years ago. But not low enough. Uranium was trading at 1/3rd of its marginal production cost in the early 2020's. Platinum is around 30-40% below the South African producers' AISC (est. USD 1200 to 1300).
- EMs (ex China). I've got some Latam stocks, now looking at SEA. eg: Pakuwon Jati. Indonesia and the Philippines are cheap, and Malaysia has high projected GDP growth in the next few quarters. But there's no rush. Unlike Latam (upcoming 2025/26 elections), SEA does not have a catalyst. EMs have underperformed for years, and we are still in the USD-up-EMs-down phase of the Trump rally.
No comments:
Post a Comment