Quick Update: Market Madness
The indexes were mostly rangebound in the past month after Trump euphoria faded, while value stocks had their longest losing streak. My portfolio steadily lost ground. Wednesday had a shock 3% fall on rates disappointment:
I think its a one off drop. The VIX is back in the teens, and international markets didn't sell off.
During the panic, I sold off:
- XOM before the big fall. It should be working but wasn't.
- And Gold (GLD) after it. Expecting higher growth in the future, gold fares badly.
The blue items are trades, the black ones investments. My portfolio is down about 8% from its all time highs after Trump.
Some Ideas:
- Europe is cheap and hated. Poland may recover if we get a Ukraine ceasefire. I have not looked at any stocks there. Maybe GPW.
- South America, as they follow Milei's path. Probably ETFs, these markets are inaccessible to retail.
Some Links/News:
Several days lack-of-wind in Germany leads to sky-high power prices in Sweden. Swedish minister says they are in a "shit situation" because Germany does not have reliable baseload energy.
(Nov 29th) Saudi Arabia calls off major Defence Treaty with US, and can no longer normalise Israel relations. Makes it harder for Trump to bargain with them for lower oil prices.
Goehring & Rozencwajg's 3Q Commentary mentions that shale gas production peaked in November 2023, "and has since slipped by 1%, or 1 billion cubic feet per day". Need to watch this, its a long term threat to my gas pipeline stocks.
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