Quick Updates (May to Mid-June)

Small additions in last week's correction:

• Bought more gold, some GDX and GDXJ.  Would like to buy more but no money.  I'm also late to the party - everyone knows about gold's new highs - so keep it small.
• Shorted TLT

Other news:

• AEM (SGX) dives 15% after delivering a bad 1Q24 update.   Need to wait longer for the upturn.  Cyclicals are tough.
• Portfolio is up 1% last week.  

Its a very "risk on" portfolio.  My gut feeling is that the correction will continue, maybe triggered by Thursday night's inflation numbers.  Possible a falling SPY and rising VIX will drag down my portfolio, even though they are commodities and value which should benefit from inflation. Vol spikes, everything tumbles.

No plans to do anything, even if this happens.  Just pay off debt.  I'll only sell the short term holdings when the Hedgeye signals change.  If all goes well I won't be making any changes for a long time.

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Update 8th May 2024:

• Shorted another 1% TLT
• Portfolio has gone up another 1 or 2% again.

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Update 23rd May: Last night, commodities were hammered on talks of inflation concerns leading to possible higher rates.  My portfolio down 2%.

Tech (Nasdaq, BTC) were up, maybe because Nvdia beat expectations.

SPX is only down very slightly (-0.27%) and VIX is stable at 12ish.

I think this is a small correction, the commodities trade became too visible and was way overbought.  Need to shake out the speculators.

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Update 3rd June: Bought 2% Bitcoin last week.  Its consolidating.

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Update 10th June:

• Hedgeye's trend for oil turned bearish last week, I sold my weakest oil stock Acker BP.  Look to buy something else when it turns.
• Commodities hit hard last week, my portfolio down 1-2%.              

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Update 15th June: The correction continues.  Hedgeye now shows more sectors breaking down (eg: Europe, Financials).  Think the market is starting to price in stagflation instead of growth:

• Portfolio down another 0.5%.  Everything grinding down.
• Sold NIKL at a small loss as it broke trend
• Bought some more bitcoin as it was oversold.
• My trading positions are still bullish trend (FCX, SILV, Bitcoin, Gold miners).  Copper just barely.  In theory, industrial metals like copper and silver should not do well during stagflation.
• I'm holding my other positions throughout the cycle as they are either 1) companies that generate free cashflow and pay dividends even at low commodity prices, 2) too illiquid to buy-and-sell (Philippines Stock Exchange and Malaysia Smelting Corp), or 3) stock price should be more affected by fundamentals than the wider market (AEM:SGX and SPUT).