Miscellaneous Links (Doom and Gloom Edition)

Miscellaneous points, tangential to investments:

• Perun: Reservists and Irregulars in Ukraine: Ukraine may win the war.  Russia treats it as a 'Special Military Operation', meaning no conscripts.  Their initial invasion force was only 100K men.  Because it is a war of survival, Ukraine has fully mobilised.  Unless Russia treats it as a real war and does a general mobilisation - possibly on May 9th - the numbers will turn against them.

• Peter Zeihan discussed Russian oil two weeks ago (starts at 10:22) describing how, if the Russians can't sell their oil, they have to cut production permanently.  4-5m bpd offline for good, and no one can replace it.

• Which may be why WTI still has three digits, despite the current China shutdowns and US stock market crash.

• This Micheal Pettis tweet got me thinking: If the US no longer benefits from having a reserve currency, they can stop it by banning all foreign investment.  That will instantly balance the trade deficit.  Better than Trump's trade war.  In effect, anyone holding USD can no longer buy US treasuries, stocks, land etc, and  is forced to buy US goods and services instead.  How would my portfolio exist in such a world?  I have no idea. How would Asian countries (plus Germany) - who have been running trade deficits since WWII - change the structure of their economies?

• How World War III is likely to be a series of small, contained wars, similar to the Thirty Years' War.  WhatIfAltHist: is WW3 about to start?

• Finally some good news: Nearly half of Hong Kong's population has already caught covid.  They are more than halfway through it, and are easing restrictions.

• On the other hand: Xi Jinping sends warning to anyone who questions China's zero covid policy.  I don't know if zero covid containment will be successful.  Or if they eventually sweep it under the rug, ignore the cases, and adhere to it in name only.  Xi is reelected in November, after that they may ease.