Friday, May 21, 2021

Selling My Trading Account

I'm now selling my trading account which made up around 15% of my assets:


I'm selling now because:

  • Hedgeye sees quad 4 next quarter.
  • Money inflows from the Treasury General Account will stop.
  • The market is too frothy.  Every man and his dog is in.  Shitcoins are flying as crypto will "change to world".  Headlines proclaim "Copper is the new oil"...where were all these guys in 2020?

Think I've got another month to sell.  Then I look to buy gold to benefit from falling growth.  Don't know how long that trade would last.

Longer term, I think the correction will be short, like Dec 2018.  I want to be in the market again.  Still in commodities for higher inflation.  I'm looking for new targets, plus sticking with the old ones:

  • Copper again, for electrification.
  • Aluminium, copper's only substitute.  It also increases energy efficiency (lightweight).
  • Oil.  Rising energy prices are the definition of inflation.  
  • Fertiliser, rising crop prices mean more planting for next year's harvest.
  • Maybe palm oil, it takes 4 years for newly planted trees to bear fruit.
  • Battery metals are tough, they are prone to substitution.
  • Met Coal.  Probably US based, to support infrastructure spending and re-indistrialization there.  Australian listed coal producers have too much thermal exposure.
  • Maybe evil thermal coal?  Would favour Indonesian producers, as they have a strong domestic market (unlike the US or Oz) and are best placed to export to Asia & India.
  • Uranium is hard to place bets on.  The small caps are losing money, and Cameco is too tame.
  • Crypto.  I like ETH, but they are losing market share from high fees and a clogged network.
Basically anything that can't be grown too fast or printed.

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