Bought European Airports

I think we get a covid vaccine in the next 2 weeks (Pfizer & BioNTech) to 2 months (Moderna or Novavax).

It won't mean everything is over.  Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine requires 2 shots and must be stored at -70 degrees Celsius, making distribution hard.  We can expect most people in the US to be vaccinated by the start of 2023.  Mid-2021 if an easier-to-use vaccine makes it.

News of a vaccine will remove uncertainty and give a timetable for recovery. The stock market hates uncertainty but it can take bad news of a known quantity.  I think this is the turning point for covid plays.  If I'm right on the vaccine timing, its now darkest just before dawn, when uncertainty (when will this virus ever go away?) gives way to bad news (one more year to go).

And even if the all the vaccines somehow fail, I think the virus turns into a normal seasonal flu by the start of 2023.  The 1957 and 1968 pandemics lasted around 2 years.  So 2023 is the last we see of corona chan.

My covid recovery play is airports.  They've made it through the crisis without raising cash so far.

I'm buying European Airports because:

• Regional Airports (Australia/NZ/Thailand) are too expensive, even based on pre-covid earnings.
• MAHB has is changing their regulator model to be more capital intensive.  Its probably good for them, but we can't use historical numbers to value it.
• NYSE-listed Mexican airports have only 28 years concession left
• Booking.com is too expensive, as if covid never happened!  The other OTAs are bring squeezed by google.

My picks are Aeroport de Paris and Aena, from Sven Carlin.   Bought 210 shares of AENA @ 118.8 Euros, and 300 shares of ADP @ 82.45 Euros.

Theres still some risk.  From their results, I can't figure out their opex and capex (ie: cash outflows with zero revenue), and Paris has high borrowings.  If the recovery is delayed till 2023, there's a chance they do end up raising money.