Monday, April 27, 2020

Sold IAG

Sold IAG.  Because:

  • I'm not sure it can survive without a capital injection.  I think it can last 5 to 10 months (Jun to Nov), but the virus may have effects that go on for longer.   Even after the lockdowns are slowly loosened, and even if there is no second wave, it will be a long time before people are allowed to travel.
  • I think the current market rally is a bear market rally.  Use the opportunity to sell.
Loss is around SGD 25K.  This was a hard decision:

  • Can it survive without a capital injection?  Maybe.  Or maybe not.
  • Would I buy it now?  No, because of the above.  I would not catch it as a falling knife.
Longer term, I would like to buy it again.  It may be at a higher price later.  Or it may be at a lower price after they raise capital.  I prefer to sell now and buy it with a clear head later when the risk/reward is better.

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