Wuhan Virus: What we know #2

How Transmissible is it?

Very:

• It can be transmitted by cough, sneezing, and touching your eyes.  The Chinese expert who visited Wuhan and said it was controllable later got the virus from touching his eyes.
• The virus is transmissible even in its incubation stage (before symptoms).  The incubation stage lasts somewhere from 2-14 days.
• Some people may carry the virus without showing any symptoms.
• WHO estimates its R0 value to be somewhere between 1.4 and 2.5 (in Wuhan).  This is the average number of people that each carrier has infected.  SARs had an R0 of 0.49.  

How deadly is it?

Hard to tell now:

• At the early stages when hospitals are overwhelmed, it is hard to identify who has the disease.  Many may have a bad common flu and go to hospital, others may have a mild version of the new virus and stay away.  The death statistics may be understated, as some who die are recorded as other causes.
• There are reports that the virus can sicken healthy people.  Including killing a healthy 36 year old.
• About a quarter of cases are severe (requiring hospitalization).
• The official mortality rate is ~ 3%  (the 'sweet spot' to maximize transmissiblity).  But it could end up a lot higher or lower.

How likely is the containment to work?

The current quarantine of Hubei cities is probably too late.  Due to the transmissiblity, I would expect other Chinese cities to be affected, and possibly locked down as well.

I am guessing that other countries, like Singapore, will not be broadly affected.  Think we will only have to deal with few isolated case.   But its a matter of luck.  There's a chance that it turns out as bad as SARs.

Identifying/Stopping the Virus

A Singapore company has developed a device (chip-on-a-stick) that can identify the virus in 2 hours.  We will need such detection, due to the virus' wide range of symptoms, and how similar they are to other flu.  The question is how fast and cheaply they can be produced.

Vaccine development is expected to take 3 months to reach experimental testing.

The Stock Market

I think the outbreak will get worse before it gets better in China. There is a small chance it affects other Asian countries as badly as SARs.

Longer term there should be a buying opportunity for Chinese stocks.  But not yet.